- USD/JPY drifts lower for the second straight day and slides back closer to a one-month low.
- The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations turn out to be a key factor exerting some pressure.
- Traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the release of the key US CPI report.
The USD/JPY pair remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Wednesday, albeit finds some support near the 142.00 mark and recovers a few pips in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade around the 142.30 region, well within the striking distance of a one-month low touched last week.
This downfall is sponsored by the divergent monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to prompt the unwinding of carry trades and driving flows towards the Japanese Yen (JPY). In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the commitment to keep raising interest rates if the Japanese economy meets the central bank’s economic forecasts through FY2025.
In contrast, the markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18. This, in turn, fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on its gains registered over the past three days. Apart from this, the cautious market mood is seen benefitting the JPY's relative safe-haven status and exerting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Investors, however, might prefer to wait for the release of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
US Nonfarm Payrolls crushed consensus in March – LIVE
The US economy added 228K jobs in March, exceeding the initial estimate of 135K. In addition, the print came in higher than February’s 117K gain (revised from 151K). Meanwhile, the unemployment ticked higher to 4.2 (from 4.1%).
EUR/USD turns negative near 1.1000, Dollar trims losses
The now mild bounce in the US Dollar puts EUR/USD under pressure and drags it back to the proximity of the 1.1000 support as investors continue to assess the stronger-than-expected NFP figures in March (+228K).
Gold remains on the back foot around $3,000 after US Payrolls
In the wake of March’s US labour market report, Gold prices maintain their offered tone around the critical $3,000 mark per troy ounce amid marginal gains in the Greenback and further weakness in US yields.
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?
Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.