- USD/JPY falls after failing to clear 148.00 resistance, resuming its downtrend below 147.00.
- Bearish momentum strengthens; RSI near oversold, signaling potential for further declines.
- Below 146.00, key support levels include 145.44, 144.28, and 143.61; above 147.00, resistance targets are 147.89 and 148.45.
The USD/JPY retreats after failing to surpass the 148.00 resistance and extends its losses below the 147.00 mark, snapping three days of gains. At the time of writing, the major trades at 146.58, diving 0.48%.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On Thursday I wrote, “the USD/JPY is bearishly biased despite registering a recovery that saw the pair rally from under 144.00 to the current exchange rate after dovish comments by a Bank of Japan Deputy Governor.”
Once risk appetite returned, the USD/JPY resumed its downtrend. Buyers failed to clear the weekly high of 147.89, which exacerbated the pair’s fall beneath 147.00.
Momentum is bearish, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near oversold condition.
If USD/JPY drops below the 146.00 mark, sellers will undoubtedly challenge the August 8 low of 145.44, followed by the August 7 bottom at 144.28. Once those levels are surpassed, the next support would be the August 6 daily low at 143.61, followed by the latest cycle low of 141.69.
On the other hand, If the pair climbs past 147.00, the next resistance will be the weekly top at 147.89 before challenging 148.00. Up next would be the Tenkan-Sen at 148.45.
USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD maintains its bullish stance near 1.1350, look at Fedspeak
EUR/USD extends its advance above the 1.1300 level on Wednesday, supported by ongoing weakness in the US Dollar. Persistent trade tensions and renewed concerns over US fiscal health continue to pressure the Greenback, as markets look ahead to comments from central bank officials.
GBP/USD looks well bid past 1.3400, Dollar remains on the defensive
GBP/USD retreats from its earlier multi-year high near 1.3470 but continues to hold a firm bullish tone on Wednesday. The Pound remains supported after UK data showed annual CPI inflation accelerated to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, lifting sentiment around the currency.
Gold appears range bound near $3,300 ahead of Fed speakers
Gold regains the area above the $3,300 mark per troy ounce midweek, supported by growing fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Adding to the upward pressure, the US Dollar remains under strain amid ongoing concerns over US debt sustainability.
The Fed won’t cut rates soon – bad news for your mortgage loan Premium
The recent surge in US Treasury bond yields after Moody’s cut the credit rating of the United States (US) sovereign debt could be a wake-up call for financial markets, the kind of canary in the coal mine that ends up being remembered as a turnaround signal.
FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious
Retail optimism is rising, but institutions are still treading carefully amid lingering macro and earnings risks. Policy and fiscal uncertainty remain elevated, with trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns, and a cautious Fed dominating the backdrop.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.