|

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Weekly triangle advocates volatility expansion, 128.50 is the key

  • USD/JPY holds lower ground as bears keep the reins for the third consecutive day.
  • One-week-old symmetrical triangle restricts immediate moves.
  • Downbeat RSI, bearish MACD signals favor sellers to refresh multi-month low.
  • Buyers need validation from six-week-old descending trend line to retake control.

USD/JPY licks its wounds around 129.40 as it seesaws near an intraday low during early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair consolidates the latest losses as a two-day losing streak.

Even so, the quote prints mild losses while staying inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, between 128.50 and 131.00 by the press time.

That said, the bearish MACD signals join the downward-sloping RSI (14) line to keep USD/JPY sellers hopeful. Also challenging the Yen pair buyers could be a descending resistance line from mid-December 2022, close to 131.80.

It should be noted that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s December 15 to January 16 downtrend, near 132.70, precedes the one-month-long horizontal resistance area around 134.50-75 to challenge the pair’s further upside.

On the flip side, a clear break of the stated triangle’s support, close to 128.50, becomes necessary for the USD/JPY seller’s conviction.

Following that, the monthly low surrounding 127.20, also the lowest level in eight months, could probe the Yen pair bears before directing them to the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the quote’s moves between December 20 and January 18, around 125.20.

Overall, USD/JPY is funneling down towards a breakout point and hints at volatility expansion moving forward.

USD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price129.4
Today Daily Change-0.20
Today Daily Change %-0.15%
Today daily open129.6
 
Trends
Daily SMA20130.59
Daily SMA50134.24
Daily SMA100139.73
Daily SMA200136.75
 
Levels
Previous Daily High130.58
Previous Daily Low129.27
Previous Weekly High131.58
Previous Weekly Low127.22
Previous Monthly High138.18
Previous Monthly Low130.57
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%129.77
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%130.08
Daily Pivot Point S1129.05
Daily Pivot Point S2128.5
Daily Pivot Point S3127.73
Daily Pivot Point R1130.37
Daily Pivot Point R2131.13
Daily Pivot Point R3131.68

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD hangs near three-week low, below 0.6950 as traders await US NFP report

AUD/USD hits a three-week low during the Asian session on Friday as the RBA’s dovish shift and a rout in equity markets weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, the recent slump in US bond yields to a two-month low keeps US Dollar bulls on the back foot and limits losses for the currency pair as traders look to the US NFP report for a fresh impetus.

USD/JPY bounces off three-week low; keeps the red near 157.65 as focus remains on US NFP

USD/JPY bounces off the weekly low set during the Asian session, as bears turn cautious ahead of the US NFP report due later this Friday. The upside seems limited as the recent slump in US bond yields and hopes of Iran war de-escalation undermine the US Dollar. Moreover, a hawkish BoJ and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, capping the pair.

Gold loses the grip; $4,000 comes next on the downside

Gold sets aside two daily advances in a row on Friday, opening the door to a potential test of the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal’s retracement follows a decent improvement in the sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, solid NFP data and higher US Treasury yields across the board.

Democrats win House and Senate in US midterms: Why isn’t all bad news for crypto

The biggest story this week was Tuesday’s US midterm elections, which saw Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in a clear blue wave. This political shift in the US has triggered sharp price swings across the cryptocurrency market.

Week ahead – Inflation and geopolitics in focus as US political landscape shifts

Post-midterm election euphoria fizzles out as risk aversion prevails. US CPI, PPI and Fedspeak on the radar as Fed hike bets remain supported. Oil retreat pauses on mixed hopes about the ongoing conflicts.

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress
The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.