USD/JPY Price Analysis: Weekly triangle advocates volatility expansion, 128.50 is the key


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  • USD/JPY holds lower ground as bears keep the reins for the third consecutive day.
  • One-week-old symmetrical triangle restricts immediate moves.
  • Downbeat RSI, bearish MACD signals favor sellers to refresh multi-month low.
  • Buyers need validation from six-week-old descending trend line to retake control.

USD/JPY licks its wounds around 129.40 as it seesaws near an intraday low during early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair consolidates the latest losses as a two-day losing streak.

Even so, the quote prints mild losses while staying inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, between 128.50 and 131.00 by the press time.

That said, the bearish MACD signals join the downward-sloping RSI (14) line to keep USD/JPY sellers hopeful. Also challenging the Yen pair buyers could be a descending resistance line from mid-December 2022, close to 131.80.

It should be noted that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s December 15 to January 16 downtrend, near 132.70, precedes the one-month-long horizontal resistance area around 134.50-75 to challenge the pair’s further upside.

On the flip side, a clear break of the stated triangle’s support, close to 128.50, becomes necessary for the USD/JPY seller’s conviction.

Following that, the monthly low surrounding 127.20, also the lowest level in eight months, could probe the Yen pair bears before directing them to the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the quote’s moves between December 20 and January 18, around 125.20.

Overall, USD/JPY is funneling down towards a breakout point and hints at volatility expansion moving forward.

USD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 129.4
Today Daily Change -0.20
Today Daily Change % -0.15%
Today daily open 129.6
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 130.59
Daily SMA50 134.24
Daily SMA100 139.73
Daily SMA200 136.75
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 130.58
Previous Daily Low 129.27
Previous Weekly High 131.58
Previous Weekly Low 127.22
Previous Monthly High 138.18
Previous Monthly Low 130.57
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 129.77
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 130.08
Daily Pivot Point S1 129.05
Daily Pivot Point S2 128.5
Daily Pivot Point S3 127.73
Daily Pivot Point R1 130.37
Daily Pivot Point R2 131.13
Daily Pivot Point R3 131.68

 

 

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