Analysts at MUFG Bank, hold a bullish bias for the USD/JPY pair, reflecting the fact that the US rates market is unlikely to correct dramatically lower over the very short term. They see the pair trading between 130.00 and 138.50 during the weeks ahead.
Key Quotes:
“Risk-off and general tighter financial conditions remain a key catalyst for further US dollar strength. The historic norm of USD/JPY falling in those market conditions will only return if risk-off starts to influence US yields lower. That has not been the case so far this year and hence the risk correlation with JPY is less robust. We do not expect that to change over the short-term and hence we hold a bullish bias on USD/JPY direction over the short-term. Elevated US rates and JPY valuation should limit the scale of JPY depreciation from here. Furthermore,
“The statement this month from the BoJ/MoF/FSA expressing concern over JPY depreciation may act to slow or curtail JPY depreciation at higher levels closer to 140.00. In addition, continued concerns over inflation and limited scope for US rates to correct lower should provide support for USD/JPY, especially if rates volatility eases and Japan investor buying of UST bonds starts to pick up again.”
“The main downside risk for USD/JPY in the month ahead would be if the scale of JPY weakness finally triggers a joint policy response from the government and BoJ. But the scale of JGB buying by the BoJ last week suggests action to limit yen weakness is unlikely over the short-term. A sharper correction in US rates lower is another key downside risk and while we expect that to materialize later, it is premature to expect that over the short-term with the primary focus of the Fed still on tackling upside inflation risks.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD clings to recovery gains above 1.3200, as BoE looms
GBP/USD sustains the recovery above 1.3200 in early Europe on Thursday, having found buyers near 1.3150. A fresh US Dollar pullback and a rebound in risk sentiment offer support to the pair ahead of the BoE policy announcements.
EUR/USD holds higher ground above 1.1100, focus shifts to ECB-speak
EUR/USD is holding higher ground above 1.1100 in the early European session on Thursday. The pair is underpinned by the renewed US Dollar retreat, as traders digest the Fed's dovish outlook, bracing for ECB-speak for fresh trading incentives. US data are also eyed.
Gold price jumps back closer to all-time peak, $2,600 remains in sight amid fresh USD weakness
Gold price regains positive traction following the previous day's pullback from the all-time peak and builds on its steady intraday ascent heading into the European session on Thursday.
BoE expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 5% as price pressures persist
After a close call in August, the Bank of England’s September interest rate decision is keenly awaited for fresh cues on the bank’s future policy action and the pace of its bond sales.
Bitcoin surges to $62,000 mark after 50 bps Fed rate cut
Bitcoin and Ripple eye for a rally as they break and find support around their resistance barrier. Meanwhile, Ethereum demonstrates signs of recovery as it approaches a critical resistance level, indicating that an upward rally could be on the horizon if it successfully breaks through.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.