USD/JPY hovers around cycle high on low volume session

USD/JPY trades stable in the 141.80 area after hitting its highest point since November 2022.
US Stock and bond markets are closed on Juneteenth celebrations.
Eyes on economic data from the US, Chair Powell's testimony on Wednesday.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The USD/JPY slightly retreated on Monday to the 141.80 area after hitting a multi-month high on Friday. US traders are celebrating Juneteenth and markets are relatively quiet. Investors seem to be consolidating gains after the USD/JPY pair increased more than 100 pips on Friday. The week’s focus remains on economic data from the US, released throughout the next sessions, Chair Powell's testimony before the US Congress and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes out on Tuesday.

Economic data to start shaping July’s Fed decision, eyes on BoJ minutes

Last Wednesday, Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for a hike pause, and that officials needed additional information to assess its implications on monetary policy. In that sense, US Housing data to be released on Tuesday, followed by Jobless Claims and S&P PMIs on Thursday and Friday, respectively, may impact their expectations regarding the next July meeting. In addition, Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress on Wednesday may trigger some reaction in USD price dynamics.

As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are betting on a 75% probability of the Fed hiking by 25 basis points (bps) to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26.

On the other hand, the BoJ will release the minutes of its Friday meeting on Tuesday, where investors will get a better outlook of the bank's stance regarding monetary policy that could potentially impact the Yen.

USD/JPY Levels to watch

The USD/JPY has a bullish outlook in the short term, as per the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both in positive territory, and the pair trades above its main moving averages, indicating that the buyers are in charge.

If USD/JPY manages to move higher, the next resistances to watch are at the 142.00 zone, followed by the 142.50 area and the 143.00 zone. On the other hand, the 141.50 area is the immediate support level for USD/JPY. A break below this level could pave the way towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the 139.90 area and then to the 139.20 zone.

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	141.89
Today Daily Change	0.03
Today Daily Change %	0.02
Today daily open	141.86

Trends
Daily SMA20	139.77
Daily SMA50	136.91
Daily SMA100	135.01
Daily SMA200	137.24

Levels
Previous Daily High	141.92
Previous Daily Low	139.85
Previous Weekly High	141.92
Previous Weekly Low	139.01
Previous Monthly High	140.93
Previous Monthly Low	133.5
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	141.13
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	140.64
Daily Pivot Point S1	140.51
Daily Pivot Point S2	139.15
Daily Pivot Point S3	138.44
Daily Pivot Point R1	142.57
Daily Pivot Point R2	143.27
Daily Pivot Point R3	144.63

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD looks offered just above 0.7100

AUD/USD has extended Monday’s pessimism, briefly breaching below the key. 0.7100 contention zone to hit three-day lows. The firmer tone in the Greenback has been keeping the Aussie under pressure while investors continued to gear up for the upcoming Trump-Xi Summit on Thursday.

USD/JPY holds small gains near 157.50 as JPY intervention risks loom

USD/JPY posts modest gains while trading near 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday as intervention fears help limit losses for the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish rate hike to a 31-year high keeps JPY bulls on the back foot. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a bullish undertone amid the Fed's hawkish outlook and escalating Middle East tensions, providing tailwinds for the pair.

Gold makes a U-turn; focus shifts to $4,400

Gold regains balance and now trades with decent gains, approaching the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes despite the resumption of the buying interest in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin reclaims key moving averages, altering bear cycle pattern

Bitcoin (BTC) may have altered its bear-cycle pattern after climbing above its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages, according to K33. In a Tuesday report, K33 noted that every time Bitcoin reclaimed all four major averages before now, it happened after the market had already established its cycle low.

Trump meets Xi: Why markets are watching this summit so closely

United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Washington on Thursday for a summit closely watched by markets. After several months of easing trade tensions between the US and China, the meeting could determine whether the world's two largest economies extend their truce or enter a new period of uncertainty.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.