|

USD/JPY consolidates near two-month top, remains below 160.00 amid risk of intervention

  • USD/JPY continues to draw some support from the divergent Fed-BoJ policy stance. 
  • Fears that authorities will intervene to support the JPY cap the upside for the major.
  • Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the crucial US PCE Price Index data on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair oscillates in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Wednesday and is currently placed around the 159.70-159.75 region, or just below a nearly two-month peak touched earlier this week. The upside, meanwhile, remains capped amid fears that Japanese authorities or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might intervene in the markets to prop up the domestic currency. 

In fact, Japan's Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda reiterated that the government is prepared to take appropriate action if excessive currency fluctuations have a negative impact on the national economy. Kanda’s comments, however, had minimal impact on the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the wake of the BoJ's reluctance to provide a detailed plan for the reduction of bond purchases. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. 

Against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish pause in June, the recent comments by policymakers indicated that the central bank is not in a rush to start its rate-cutting cycle. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman repeated her view on Tuesday that holding the policy rate steady for some time will likely be enough to bring inflation under control. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said it would be appropriate to cut interest rates "at some point" given significant progress on inflation and a gradual cooling of the labor market, though remained vague about the timing of the easing.

That said, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep hopes alive for the first interest rate cut by the Fed in September. This, in turn, is holding back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the final US Q1 GDP print on Thursday, which will be followed by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. The latter will influence the Fed's future policy decision and determine the near-term trajectory for the currency pair.

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price159.72
Today Daily Change0.04
Today Daily Change %0.03
Today daily open159.68
 
Trends
Daily SMA20157.41
Daily SMA50156.35
Daily SMA100153.45
Daily SMA200150.47
 
Levels
Previous Daily High159.76
Previous Daily Low159.19
Previous Weekly High159.84
Previous Weekly Low157.16
Previous Monthly High157.99
Previous Monthly Low151.86
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%159.54
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%159.41
Daily Pivot Point S1159.32
Daily Pivot Point S2158.97
Daily Pivot Point S3158.76
Daily Pivot Point R1159.89
Daily Pivot Point R2160.11
Daily Pivot Point R3160.46

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles for direction amid USD gains

EUR/USD is trimming part of its earlier gains, coming under some mild downside pressure near 1.1730 as the US Dollar edges higher. Markets are still digesting the Fed’s latest rate decision, while also looking ahead to more commentary from Fed officials in the sessions ahead.

GBP/USD drops to daily lows near 1.3360

Disappointing UK data weighed on the Sterling towards the end of the week, triggering a pullback in GBP/USD to fresh daily lows near 1.3360. Looking ahead, the next key event across the Channel is the BoE meeting on December 18.

Gold losses momentum, challenges $4,300

Gold now gives away some gains and disputes the key $4,300 zone per troy ounce following earlier multi-week highs. The move is being driven by expectations that the Fed will deliver further rate cuts next year, with the yellow metal climbing despite a firmer Greenback and rising US Treasury yields across the board.

Litecoin Price Forecast: LTC struggles to extend gains, bullish bets at risk

Litecoin (LTC) price steadies above $80 at press time on Friday, following a reversal from the $87 resistance level on Wednesday. Derivatives data suggests a bullish positional buildup while the LTC futures Open Interest declines, flashing a long squeeze risk.

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.