The USD/INR will likely trade in the 70.000-75.500 range during the first quarter and between 70.500-76.000 in the second quarter, according to analysts at MUFG Bank. They forecast USD/INR at 74.250 by the end of the year.
Key Quotes:
“The Indian rupee was one of the only three Asia ex-Japan currencies to appreciate against the dollar in January despite the dollar’s rebound. The rupee’s resilience is partly attributed to relatively large equity inflows for the third consecutive month. A lot of good news, such as India’s status as the world’s vaccine manufacturing hub, has been priced. The rupee would be vulnerable to periodic pullbacks in equity flows given stretched valuations, although the slosh in global liquidity should still underpin foreign portfolio investment flows.”
“But as supply side risks to inflation remain, the RBI may refrain from cutting until inflation is seen to remain well within the inflation target range between 2-6%. This year, the RBI is expected to continue to conduct operation twists in order to keep a lid on yields that are pressured by another year of near record IGB issuances.”
“Prospects of further easing, and deterioration in India’s terms of trade due to higher oil prices would place downward pressure on the rupee, though losses would be cushioned by dollar weakness.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD turns negative near 1.0760
The sudden bout of strength in the Greenback sponsored the resurgence of the selling pressure in the risk complex, dragging EUR/USD to the area of daily lows near 1.0760.
GBP/USD comes under pressure and challenges 1.2500
GBP/USD now rapidly loses momentum and gives away initial gains, returning to the 1.2500 region on the back of the strong comeback of the US Dollar.
Gold retreats from highs on stronger Dollar, yields
XAU/USD trims part of its initial advance in response to the jump in the Dollar's buying interest and the re-emergence of the upside pressure in US yields.
XRP tests support at $0.50 as Ripple joins alliance to work on blockchain recovery
XRP trades around $0.5174 early on Friday, wiping out gains from earlier in the week, as Ripple announced it has joined an alliance to support digital asset recovery alongside Hedera and the Algorand Foundation.
Week ahead – US inflation numbers to shake Fed rate cut bets
Fed rate-cut speculators rest hopes on US inflation data. After dovish BoE, pound traders turn to UK job numbers. Will a strong labor market convince the RBA to hike? More Chinese data on tap amid signs of slow Q2 start.