- USD/INR snaps two-day uptrend, reverses from monthly high.
- India reports lowest daily jump in coronavirus cases since May.
- September GDP is expected to ease from 20.1% prior, RBI rate hike stays on the cards.
- Fed’s Powell, US data and covid updates are important too.
USD/INR refreshes intraday low to 74.91, down 0.27% on a day while extending the pullback from the monthly top during early Tuesday.
In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair portrays the market’s cautious optimism ahead of the fiscal Q2 GDP of India, as well as receding fears of Omnicron which earlier triggered the market’s rush to risk safety. That said, India’s GDP is expected to ease from 20.1% prior to 8.4%.
“Fast-moving indicators including exports, electricity generation, rail freight and bank deposits showed improving signs of growth momentum in October while vehicle sales, fuel sales and tax collection showed slower growth,” said Reuters ahead of the release.
It should be observed that firmer inflation pushes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) towards a rate hike but the latest covid outbreak may stop the national bank from doing so if today’s GDP softens more than expected.
Elsewhere, India’s daily covid cases rose 6,990 versus 8,309, per the latest figures shared by Reuters. This marks the Asian nation’s lowest daily count since May 28, 2020.
On a broader front, market sentiment improves amid receding fears from the South African variant of the coronavirus. The reason could be linked to the global policymakers’ rejection of the need for total lockdowns and comparatively better economic conditions than the early pandemic days.
While portraying the mood, the US Treasury yields remain pressured with the headline 10-year bond coupon down three basis points (bps) to 1.50% whereas S&P 500 Futures print mild gains at the latest.
Moving on, India’s Q2 GDP will offer immediate direction to USD/INR prices while US CB Consumer Confidence for November and covid updates, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, will be important to watch for fresh impulse.
Technical analysis
RSI retreat hints at further pullback from the monthly high surrounding 75.20 towards multiple supports around 74.60-58.
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