• USD/INR prints three-day uptrend to refresh all-time high.
  • USD/INR NDFs hint at further upside momentum towards 79.00.
  • Oil prices renew one-week top above $110.00, up for the third consecutive day.
  • RBI intervention, US data should be watched carefully for clear directions.

USD/INR stays on the front foot while refreshing an all-time high of around 78.56 during the initial Indian trading session on Tuesday.

The Indian rupee (INR) pair’s latest run-up could be linked to the strong oil prices, as well as bullish bets on the Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDF). Recently downbeat sentiment has also propelled the USD/INR prices of late.

WTI crude oil prices print a three-day uptrend near $109.50 by the press time. Growing fears of a supply crunch appear to underpin the black gold’s latest run-up. Comments suggesting no excess capacity to increase oil output from the United Arab Emirates Energy Minister join the G7 nations’ commitment to unveil new sanctions on Russian oil to favor the supply crunch fears.

It’s worth noting that India imports around 85% of its oil consumption and hence is susceptible to oil price moves.

On the other hand, Reuters conveys the latest USD/INR NDFs around 78.67-72, which in turn suggests the further advances of the Indian rupee pair.

Elsewhere, the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events joins a light calendar in Asia to weigh on sentiment amid impending fears of recession. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from a two-week high flashed the previous day, down 0.15% intraday around 3,897 at the latest. In doing so, the key gauge of the US equity futures prints the first daily loss in four. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.17% by the press time. The benchmark US bond coupons rose during the last two consecutive days.

Moving on, USD/INR bulls should wait for the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, for clear directions. Following that, Wednesday’s ECB Forum will be crucial as the central bank leaders from the US, the UK and Europe will debate monetary policies then.

Technical analysis

USD/INR approaches an upward sloping resistance line from March, around 78.60 by the press time. However, overbought RSI conditions seem to challenge the bulls of late. It’s worth noting that a three-week-old rising support line, near 78.15 at the latest, restricts the short-term downside moves of the pair.

Additional important levels

Today last price 78.531
Today Daily Change 0.0944
Today Daily Change % 0.12%
Today daily open 78.4366
Daily SMA20 77.9263
Daily SMA50 77.3966
Daily SMA100 76.6038
Daily SMA200 75.6746
Previous Daily High 78.537
Previous Daily Low 78.204
Previous Weekly High 78.407
Previous Weekly Low 77.879
Previous Monthly High 78.12
Previous Monthly Low 75.9846
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 78.4098
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 78.3312
Daily Pivot Point S1 78.2481
Daily Pivot Point S2 78.0595
Daily Pivot Point S3 77.9151
Daily Pivot Point R1 78.5811
Daily Pivot Point R2 78.7255
Daily Pivot Point R3 78.9141



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