- USD/CHF is trending higher on a short and medium-term basis.
- It is likely to continue up towards bullish targets.
USD/CHF unfolds a text-book trend higher with alternating climbing peaks and troughs on the 4-hour chart.
The pair is probably in an uptrend on both a short and medium-term basis and given the principle in technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation higher.
USD/CHF 4-hour Chart
USD/CHF will probably reach the target generated after it broke out of its September range, at 0.8680, the 100% Fibonacci (Fib) extrapolation of the height of the range higher. A break above that level could lead to a further extension to the 0.8750 resistance level (August 15 high).
USD/CHF has already met conservative target for the breakout from the range at 0.8627, the 61.8% Fib level. This could mean bullish pressure may lessen.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is showing bearish divergence with price when comparing the October 16 and 17 lows (red dotted lines on chart). Although price made a higher low on October 17 compared to the day before, the RSI made a lower low. This could point to mild underlying weakness, however, it does not alone suggest a change of trend.
A chart gap opened on Monday morning and there is a risk the market could pull back all the way to fill this gap. If so, it could correct down to 0.8574. It would require a break below the former range highs at 0.8541 to confirm a probable change of trend.
USD/CHF’s longer-term trend is probably still bearish despite the strong recovery over recent weeks.
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