USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls fail to maintain momentum and retreat to 0.8870

The USD/CHF cleared daily gains, which saw the pair jumping to 0.8915 and settling at 0.8870.
Markets are still digesting US mixed NFP report.
Eyes on US CPI data on Wednesday, expected to have decelerated in June.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Monday, the USD/CHF reversed its course and cleared daily gains, retreating to the 0.8870 area in negative territory. No high-tier data will be released, and several Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will deliver speeches. Meanwhile, markets continue to asses Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report from the US, which came in mixed, ahead of inflation data to be released on Wednesday.

US NFPs came in mixed, eyes on CPI data

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the number of new jobs created in all non-agricultural businesses fell to 209K MoM in June while markets expected 225K, lower than the previous figure of 306K. However, wages increased by 0.4% MoM in the same month, higher than the 0.4% expected.

As a reaction, the US faced severe selling pressure as the lower-than-expected job creation figures made investors bet on a less aggressive Fed. That said, sticky wage inflation may pressure the Fed to maintain its aggressive stance and limit USD losses. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will provide additional information regarding the inflation outlook in the US. As for now, markets are expecting the headline figure to fall to 3.1% YoY in June and the Core figure to 5% from their previous 4% and 5.3% figures, respectively.

Regarding expectations, markets have already priced in a 25 basis point (bps) hike in the next July meeting, while the odds of another hike stand around 40%. Fed officials Loretta Mester and Mary Daly were on the wires on Monday and showed themselves hawkish, expressing that inflation is unacceptably high and that further hikes are appropriate but failed to boost the USD.

USD/CHF Levels to watch

The daily chart suggests that the outlook favours the CHF over the USD in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points south in negative territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints higher red bars, indicating a growing selling momentum. In addition, the pair trades below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)

Support Levels: 0.8860,0.8830,0.8820

Resistance Levels: 0.8915, 0.8956 (20-day SMA), 0.8995

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.8869
Today Daily Change	-0.0020
Today Daily Change %	-0.22
Today daily open	0.8889

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.8969
Daily SMA50	0.8984
Daily SMA100	0.9071
Daily SMA200	0.9282

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.897
Previous Daily Low	0.8876
Previous Weekly High	0.9005
Previous Weekly Low	0.8876
Previous Monthly High	0.912
Previous Monthly Low	0.8902
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.8912
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.8934
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.8853
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.8817
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8759
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.8948
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9006
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9042

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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