USD/CAD slides to fresh weekly low, further below 1.3500 amid an uptick in Oil prices


  • USD/CAD attracts sellers for the second straight day, though the downside seems limited.
  • Oil prices rise amid Middle East tensions and underpin the Loonie, weighing on the major. 
  • Reduced bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in November lend support to the USD and the pair.

The USD/CAD pair extends the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.3535-1.3540 region, or a one-week high and remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Wednesday. The downfall drags spot prices to the 1.3475 area during the Asian session and is sponsored by a modest uptick in Crude Oil prices.

Fears of a full-out war in the Middle East escalated after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation to the latter's campaign against its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that Iran would pay for its missile attack. An Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities could disrupt oil supply from the key producing region and act as a tailwind for the black liquid, which underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and exerts downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. 

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to draw support from diminishing odds for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Tuesday's US macro data, indicating a resilient labor market. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that he sees two more 25 bps rate cuts this year as a baseline if the economy performs as expected. Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings unexpectedly increased in August and stood at 8.04 million. 

This, in turn, assists the USD to preserve its strong recovery gains registered over the past two days and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, expectations for a bigger interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) should cap gains for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and contribute to limiting losses for the currency pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent bounce from a multi-month low has run out of steam.

Investors now look forward to the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment, which, along with geopolitical developments, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics might provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops toward 1.0950 on tepid risk sentiment

EUR/USD drops toward 1.0950 on tepid risk sentiment

EUR/USD is seeing a fresh selling wave toward 1.0950 in the European session on Wednesday, as the US Dollar resumes upside amid lingering Chinese economic concerns and the Middle East escalation. The focus now stays on the ECB/ Fed-speak and the FOMC Minutes. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD sits at multi-week low below 1.3100, awaits FOMC minutes

GBP/USD sits at multi-week low below 1.3100, awaits FOMC minutes

GBP/USD is trading close to multi-week lows below 1.3100 in the European trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar adds to recent gains amid risk aversion, awaiting the Fed Minutes for a fresh directional impetus in the pair. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price struggles to lure buyers as smaller Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold price struggles to lure buyers as smaller Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold price remains under some selling pressure for the sixth successive day on Wednesday and is currently placed just above a three-week low, around the $2,605-2,604 region touched the previous day. 

Gold News
Bitcoin shows signs of weakness

Bitcoin shows signs of weakness

Bitcoin is hovering at a critical support level, and a drop below it could signal a downturn, while Ethereum and Ripple are approaching important resistance levels, where a rejection might indicate a shift towards bearish momentum.

Read more
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures

RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.

Read more
Five best Forex brokers in 2024

Five best Forex brokers in 2024

VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals. 

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures