- USD/CAD continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction amid mixed cues.
- The USD languishes near the YTD low amid dovish Fed expectations and cap the upside.
- A downtick in Crude Oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the pair.
The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move on Tuesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain below the 1.3600 mark through the early European session amid a bearish US Dollar (USD), though the downside seems cushioned ahead of the key central bank event risk.
The markets are now pricing in a greater chance of an oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid signs that inflation in the US was subsiding. This, in turn, drags the US Treasury bond yields to one or two-year lows, which, along with the upbeat market mood, keeps the USD depressed near the 2024 trough touched on Monday and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.
That said, a modest pullback in Crude Oil prices from a nearly two-week high and bets for additional interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. This could hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair and help limit deeper losses ahead of the Canadian consumer inflation figures, due later this Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 1.3600 mark favor bearish traders. That said, the range-bound price action around the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) constitutes the formation of a rectangle and marks a consolidation phase. Moreover, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before placing directional bets.
Meanwhile, strength beyond the 1.3600 mark is likely to confront some resistance near the monthly peak, around the 1.3620-1.3625 region touched last week. Some follow-through buying will set the stage for an extension of the recent recovery from the multi-month low touched in August and lift the USD/CAD pair further beyond the 1.3665-1.3670 intermediate hurdle, towards the 1.3700 round figure.
On the flip side, the 1.3565 horizontal zone now seems to have emerged as immediate support, below which spot prices could accelerate the fall towards the 1.3500 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will expose the multi-month low, around the 1.3440 area, and drag the USD/CAD pair further towards the 1.3400 mark en route to the February swing low, around the 1.3365 region.
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 17, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.5%
Source: Statistics Canada
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD plummets toward 0.6200 ahead of US NFP data
AUD/USD has come under intense selling pressure, falling hard toward 0.6200 early Friday. US-China trade tensions, increased odds of Trump's tariffs-led global recession and dovish RBA expectations undermine the risk-sensitive Aussie. All eyes on US NFP and Powell.
USD/JPY falls back below 146.00 amid intense risk aversion
USD/JPY slips back under 146.00, fading its recovery in the Asian session on Friday. Risk aversion remains at full steam, reviving the haven demand for the Japanese Yen as investors ditch riskier assets amid a looming global trade war-led by US President Trump's aggressive tariff policies. US NFP and Powell eyed.
Gold: Will Powell and Payrolls drive the next leg higher?
Gold price is taking a breather early Friday after witnessing a volatile trading day on Thursday. Traders are consolidating the weekly gains, slightly away from the record high of $3,168, bracing for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for a fresh directional impetus.
Solana extends decline amid upcoming $200 million unlocks
Solana declined 3% in Friday's early Asian session, impacted by an upcoming $200 million staked SOL unlock from four whale wallets, according to Arkham Intelligence. Additionally, the SEC has acknowledged Fidelity's filing to launch a Solana exchange-traded fund.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.