USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls turn cautious ahead of US CPI report and BoC decision


  • USD/CAD pulls back from a multi-year top, though the downside seems limited.
  • Rising oil prices underpins the Loonie and exert pressure on the currency pair.
  • The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers.

The USD/CAD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains close to the highest level since April 2020 touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.4100s, down less than 0.10% for the day, as traders keenly await the US consumer inflation figures and the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decision before placing fresh directional bets.

In the meantime, rising Crude Oil prices seem to underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and exert some pressure on the USD/CAD pair. That said, bets for a larger BoC rate cut might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Furthermore, the growing market conviction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a cautious stance on cutting interest rates assists the US Dollar (USD) in preserving its gains registered over the past three days and acts as a tailwind for the currency pair. 

From a technical perspective, the recent sustained breakout and acceptance above the 1.4100 mark was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains to the upside. Hence, any further slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the aforementioned handle, which should now act as a pivotal point.

Some follow-through selling, leading to weakness below the 1.4070 support zone, might prompt some long-unwinding trade and drag the USD/CAD pair to the 1.4020 area en route to the 1.4000 psychological mark. The corrective pullback could extend further towards the next relevant support near the 1.3960-1.3950 area en route to the November 25 low, around the 1.3925 region. 

On the flip side, the 1.4200 mark might continue to act as an immediate barrier, above which the USD/CAD pair could surpass an intermediate hurdle near the 1.4260 area and test the April 2020 swing high, around the 1.4300 round figure. Spot prices could eventually climb to the 1.4335-1.4340 region.

USD/CAD daily chart

fxsoriginal

Economic Indicator

BoC Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Dec 11, 2024 14:45

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 3.25%

Previous: 3.75%

Source: Bank of Canada

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

XM
Account
7.2
Tools
9.2
Service
9.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
7.0
Experience
8.4
Read review
Moneta Markets
Account
7.4
Tools
6.6
Service
8.0
Trading
6.6
Trust
5.2
Experience
9.2
Read review
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Read review
Pepperstone
Account
8.2
Tools
8.2
Service
7.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
8.8
Experience
9.0
Read review
XM
Read review
Moneta Markets
Read review
Trading Pro
Read review
Pepperstone
Read review
Trading Pro
Read review
Pepperstone
Read review
XM
Read review
Moneta Markets
Read review
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Read review
Pepperstone
Account
8.2
Tools
8.2
Service
7.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
8.8
Experience
9.0
Read review
XM
Account
7.2
Tools
9.2
Service
9.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
7.0
Experience
8.4
Read review
Moneta Markets
Account
7.4
Tools
6.6
Service
8.0
Trading
6.6
Trust
5.2
Experience
9.2
Read review

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar

EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar

The US Dollar's recovery regains extra impulse sending the US Dollar Index to fresh highs and relegating EUR/USD to navigate the area of daily troughs around 1.0930 in the latter part of Friday's session.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850

GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850

The US Dollar's rebound keep gathering steam and now sends GBP/USD to the area of multi-week lows in the 1.2850 region amid the broad-based pullback in the risk-associated universe.

GBP/USD News
Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000

Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000

Gold prices are accelerating their daily decline, steadily approaching the critical $3,000 per troy ounce mark as the Greenback's rebound gains extra momentum and US yields tighten their retracement.

Gold News
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?

Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?

Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.

Read more
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”

Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”

Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025