USD/CAD Price Analysis: Struggles for a firm intraday direction, remains below 200-day SMA

USD/CAD fails to attract buyers and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
A downtick in Oil prices undermines the Loonie, though a softer USD caps the upside.
The mixed technical setup also warrants some caution before placing directional bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's bounce from the 1.3415-1.3410 area or a one-week low and oscillates in a narrow range through the early European session on the first day of a new week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3460 area, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note in the wake of easing concerns about supply from the Middle East, which is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, Friday's upbeat domestic jobs report helps limit the downside for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent failure ahead of mid-1.3600s, or a nearly two-month peak touched last week, constitutes the formation of multiple tops on the daily chart. That said, the lack of strong follow-through selling warrants some caution before positioning for any further losses. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are yet to confirm a negative outlook and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.

Hence, Friday's swing low, around the 1.3415-1.3410 area, might continue to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.3400 mark. The next relevant support is pegged near the 1.3345 region, or the YTD trough, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The USD/CAD pair might then accelerate the downward trajectory further towards the 1.3300 mark before dropping to mid-1.3200s and sub-1.3200 levels, or the December swing low.

On the flip side, momentum beyond the 1.3475 area (200-day SMA) is likely to confront resistance near the 1.3500 psychological mark ahead of the 1.3540-1.3545 region, or the multiple-tops. A sustained strength beyond the latter will negate any near-term negative outlook and pave the way for some meaningful appreciating move. The USD/CAD pair might then accelerate the positive move towards the 1.3600 round figure and the 1.3610-1.3615 supply zone.

USD/CAD daily chart

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3467
Today Daily Change	0.0009
Today Daily Change %	0.07
Today daily open	1.3458

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3463
Daily SMA50	1.342
Daily SMA100	1.3553
Daily SMA200	1.3476

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3482
Previous Daily Low	1.3413
Previous Weekly High	1.3544
Previous Weekly Low	1.3413
Previous Monthly High	1.3542
Previous Monthly Low	1.3229
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3455
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3439
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.342
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3382
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3352
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3489
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.352
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3558

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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