- USD/CAD is trading at the mercy of the US dollar post-Fed.
- The Fed had something for both the bulls and bears and markets are largely unchanged.
USD/CAD is suffering a slight weakness in the US dollar after the Federal Reserve's hawkish hold. However, the US dollar suffered the consequence of a more dovish tone in the Federal Reserve's chair, Jerome Powell's comments to the press.
Powell indicated that only much higher inflation would be a concern and as such, markets got the green light for risk-on.
DXY analysis, 15-min & 4-hour chart
The markets are taking Powell's presser as dovish in contrast to what was seen as a hawkish hold as per the statement.
hence we have seen a turnaround in the greenback as follows:
15-min chart
This has sunk the dollar to below the 4-hour trendline support as follows:
This is giving the commodity complex a lift and has supported commodity-linked currencies, such as the Canadian dollar.
The following is a top-down analysis of USD/CAD:
Weekly chart
At this rate, the weekly chart is headed for a bearish closing candle this week setting a bearish tone for the start of August.
Bears will eye the confluence of old resistance and the 61.8% Fibo near 1.2460.
Daily chart
The price is testing daily support near 1.2520. A break of here would set the stage for lower lows towards the weekly target near 1.2460.
4-hour chart
The price is already below trendline support and the 100-EMA which is a new bearish development.
However, the price is yet to convincingly break the support and there is every chance that the price will move back into the range as follows:
On failures to break support, the price will be expected to move in on the counter trendline, the 21-EMA and the confluence of a 50% mean reversion.
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