- USD/CAD appreciates toward 1.4467, the highest level not seen since March 2020.
- The US Dollar strengthened as the Fed may adopt caution regarding additional rate cuts.
- The commodity-linked CAD struggles due to declining crude Oil prices.
USD/CAD retraces its recent losses and edges higher toward 1.4467, the highest level not seen since March 2020, which was recorded in the previous session. The pair trades near 1.4410 during the Asian hours on Friday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, maintains its position near 25-month high at 108.49, marked on Thursday, following key economic data from the United States (US).
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reported a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter, surpassing both market expectations and the previous reading of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 220,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 242,000 in the prior week and below the market forecast of 230,000.
The US Dollar strengthened the Fed's emphasis on exercising caution regarding additional rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that the central bank would be wary of further cuts, as inflation is expected to remain persistently above the 2% target. The Fed's monetary policy statement indicated that economic activity remained robust, while noting that labor market conditions had softened.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces headwinds as expectations grow for further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in 2025, although the era of large, aggressive reductions may have passed. Additionally, declining crude Oil prices are pressuring the commodity-linked CAD, given that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States.
Traders will closely watch Canadian October Retail Sales data on Friday. Meanwhile, in the United States, attention will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6300; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus
AUD/USD stalls the previous day's pullback from the 0.6400 neighborhood, or over a two-week high, and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Friday ahead of the US NFP. In the meantime, the USD struggles to lure buyers as Trump's sweeping tariffs lift recession fears, which might force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon.
USD/JPY recovers slightly from multi-month low; upside seems limited ahead of US NFP
USD/JPY attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from its lowest level since October set the previous day. Investors scale back their expectations that the BoJ would raise policy rate at a faster pace amid worries that Trump's new tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy, which is seen weighing on the JPY.
Gold holds positive ground above $3,100, all eyes on US NFP data
Gold price recovers some lost ground to near $3,115 during the late American session on Thursday after facing some profit-taking in the previous session. Escalating concerns over a global trade war and ongoing geopolitical risks boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Ethereum: Short-term holders may not impact ETH's price, Pectra mainnet upgrade set for May 7
Ethereum declined by 3% on Thursday as market participants continued to react to President Donald Trump's announcements regarding reciprocal tariffs. However, the selling pressure may not persist since most ETH short-term holders already sold their assets in March.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.