The latest US macro news has dampened the dollar rally. Consumer confidence rose more than expected from 99.5 to 108.7 yesterday, the strongest monthly gain since March 2021. Interestingly, for the first time since July 2023, the survey shows some improved optimism about future job availability, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
US GDP report to prevent USD narrative turn negative
“The indications from the JOLTS job openings instead pointed to some cool-off in the jobs market. There was a revision in the August figure down to 7.8m, and the September print was 7.4m – well below the consensus of 8.0m. The JOLTS report also includes the quits rate, which has decreased sharply to 1.9% from the 3% early-2022 peak, when a high number of workers were leaving their jobs for higher-paid roles elsewhere.”
“The falling quits rate can indicate that there is indeed a greater scarcity of jobs but also that workers are more worried about the outlook and value job security. This is a net-negative indicator for the jobs market, but payrolls data needs to follow through with a soft read on Friday to convince markets to price back in Fed easing. The Fed funds futures curve is embedding 45bp of cuts over November and December.”
“Today, the US will release the advanced third-quarter GDP report, which includes the quarterly core PCE figures. These are expected at 2.1% QoQ, a decline from 2.8% in the second quarter. The ADP payrolls for October are also released today and are expected to have declined from 143k to 111k. Those have limited predictive power for actual payrolls, but can still move the market. We suspect a strong growth print can prevent the macro story from turning dollar-negative before payrolls on Friday, and allow Trump hedges and rising implied volatility to feed into a stronger dollar.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold hangs close to record highs above $3,200, US data eyed
Gold price keeps its range close to fresh all-time highs near $3,220 in early Europe on Friday. The US Dollar downward spiral and escalating trade war between the United States and China continue to underpin the safe-haven appeal of Gold price.
GBP/USD rises to near 1.3050 as US Dollar remains tepid ahead of PPI data
GBP/USD is on track for its fourth consecutive daily gain, trading near 1.3030 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair continues to strengthen as the US Dollar loses ground amid lingering concerns over both the global and US economies.
EUR/USD appreciates to near 1.1350 as the EU suspends tariffs on US imports
EUR/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading near 1.1350 during Friday’s Asian session. The Euro strengthened after the European Union announced a 90-day pause on new 25% tariffs on the United States, aiming to create space for trade negotiations.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple show weakness while XRP stabilizes
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are hovering around $80,000 and $1,500 on Friday after facing rejection from their respective key levels, indicating signs of weakness. Meanwhile, Ripple broke and found support around its critical level; maintenance suggests a recovery on the cards.
Trump’s tariff pause sparks rally – What comes next?
Markets staged a dramatic reversal Wednesday, led by a 12% surge in the Nasdaq and strong gains across major indices, following President Trump’s unexpected decision to pause tariff escalation for non-retaliating trade partners.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.