US Producer Prices sent dollar of a cliff - Nomura


Analysts at Nomura noted the key events from the US session in terms of data that had the dollar on the back foot.

Key Quotes:

"Producer prices: Headline PPI declined slightly by 0.1% m-o-m in July, lower than the consensus forecast of +0.1% m-o-m. Trade prices, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, dropped sharply by 0.5%, led by a 5.8% decline in margins for chemicals and allied products wholesaling. Excluding volatile components of food (+0.0%), energy (-0.3%) and trade, core PPI remained flat in July. Even after stripping out volatile prices, there is no signal of inflationary pressure. 

While some relevant elements of PPI data such as food and electricity prices came in below our assumptions, that negative surprise was not big enough to change our forecast for tomorrow's CPI. We stick to our call laid out in the July CPI Preview published yesterday (read more: July CPI Preview, Economics Insights, 9 August 2017). With respect to core PCE prices, among relevant elements of PPI, financial service prices such as portfolio management and securities brokerage services declined in July. However, some medical care service prices like hospital outpatient and inpatient services both showed decent increases of +0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Overall, PPI's prices which are used for estimating core PCE price index seem to push up core PCE inflation slightly in July."

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