US NFP Preview: 6 Major Banks expectations for January payrolls report


Today, the US jobs report for January is due to be reported at 13.30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 6 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data.

Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between 150-175k in January, while the consensus is +160k reading. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain at 3.5% for the month.

TDS

“Despite Jan's surge, we don't extrapolate the ADP gains into our payrolls forecast. We still expect a below consensus 150k for NFP on Friday.”

“We expect a mild-weather boost to payrolls to be offset by payback in retail and slowing in the trend (with downward revisions), but the January data are especially subject to surprise; unadjusted payrolls typically drop by about 3 million m/m in January. Net-net, our 150K forecast is below consensus, but with relatively low conviction. We are neutral relative to consensus on the unemployment rate and earnings.”

Deutsche Bank

“DB’s US economists are looking for a +160k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which is basically in line with the consensus +163k call. They assume a 10k boost from temporary government hiring for the decennial census, so investor focus should be on private payrolls instead, where we’re expecting a +150k reading.”

ING

“We look for payrolls growth of 150,000 versus the 160,000 consensus forecast.”

Danske Bank

“The main event of the day is the US jobs report for January, which we expect to continue to paint an upbeat picture of the US labour market situation and we look for growth in non-farm payrolls of 175,000 and wage growth of 3.0% y/y.”

Westpac

“We expect a 170k monthly gain for payrolls (consensus is 165k) after 145k in Dec and a 0.3% rise in hourly earnings in the month, 3.0%yr. 

“The unemployment rate should remain at 3.5%. The Fed will release the semi-annual Monetary Report which will be presented to congress Tue/ Wed next week.”

Wells Fargo

“We look for the pace of nonfarm hiring to remain essentially steady in January, with employers adding 160,000 jobs.” 

“The unemployment rate should remain at its 50-year low of 3.5%.”  

“The tight labor market should continue to translate into modest wage growth. We expect average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in January, which would suggest a modest lift in the year-ago rate to 3.0%.”  

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD catches a ride on broad-market Greenback weakness

EUR/USD catches a ride on broad-market Greenback weakness

EUR/USD drifted up in a mild recovery from last Friday’s dip into 1.0670. The new trading week is kicking things off with risk appetite firmly pinned higher, sending the US Dollar lower and bolstering the Euro as investors head into a relatively quiet Tuesday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD rises to 1.2700 nearing 14-day EMA

GBP/USD rises to 1.2700 nearing 14-day EMA

GBP/USD extends gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.2700 during early Tuesday. Analysis of the daily chart shows a broadening bottom pattern in price action, representing increasing volatility. This chart pattern suggests a potential correction before moving lower.

GBP/USD News

Gold struggle extends above $2,300, with Fedspeak on tap

Gold struggle extends above $2,300, with Fedspeak on tap

Gold price is reversing a part of Monday’s rebound, as sellers fight back early Tuesday amid a risk-on market profile. The US Dollar nurses losses alongside the US Treasury bond yields, undermined by the dovish commentaries from Federal Reserve policymakers.

Gold News

Tron price primed for a surge after breaking descending trendline barrier

Tron price primed for a surge after breaking descending trendline barrier

Tron price has surged above and retested the descending trendline, indicating a bullish market structure. On-chain data reveals increasing activity among TRX active accounts, suggesting heightened blockchain usage that may fuel an impending rally in Tron’s price.

Read more

Trading the week ahead

Trading the week ahead

Starting Tuesday, we're watching the Canadian CPI print closely. The Bank of Canada's recent minutes suggested hesitation about the last rate cut, hinting they might delay further cuts. This makes the upcoming inflation data crucial.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures