US NFP Preview: 6 Major Banks expectations for January payrolls report

Today, the US jobs report for January is due to be reported at 13.30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 6 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data.

Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between 150-175k in January, while the consensus is +160k reading. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain at 3.5% for the month.

TDS

“Despite Jan's surge, we don't extrapolate the ADP gains into our payrolls forecast. We still expect a below consensus 150k for NFP on Friday.”

“We expect a mild-weather boost to payrolls to be offset by payback in retail and slowing in the trend (with downward revisions), but the January data are especially subject to surprise; unadjusted payrolls typically drop by about 3 million m/m in January. Net-net, our 150K forecast is below consensus, but with relatively low conviction. We are neutral relative to consensus on the unemployment rate and earnings.”

Deutsche Bank

“DB’s US economists are looking for a +160k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which is basically in line with the consensus +163k call. They assume a 10k boost from temporary government hiring for the decennial census, so investor focus should be on private payrolls instead, where we’re expecting a +150k reading.”

ING

“We look for payrolls growth of 150,000 versus the 160,000 consensus forecast.”

Danske Bank

“The main event of the day is the US jobs report for January, which we expect to continue to paint an upbeat picture of the US labour market situation and we look for growth in non-farm payrolls of 175,000 and wage growth of 3.0% y/y.”

Westpac

“We expect a 170k monthly gain for payrolls (consensus is 165k) after 145k in Dec and a 0.3% rise in hourly earnings in the month, 3.0%yr. 

“The unemployment rate should remain at 3.5%. The Fed will release the semi-annual Monetary Report which will be presented to congress Tue/ Wed next week.”

Wells Fargo

“We look for the pace of nonfarm hiring to remain essentially steady in January, with employers adding 160,000 jobs.” 

“The unemployment rate should remain at its 50-year low of 3.5%.”  

“The tight labor market should continue to translate into modest wage growth. We expect average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in January, which would suggest a modest lift in the year-ago rate to 3.0%.”