The United States economy has been printing very solid numbers for a while now, but that pretty picture might be slowly getting uglier. Ahead of tomorrow's US Gross Domestic Product second estimation release, we take a look at the US economic activity table which, in words of our Senior Analyst Yohay Elam, shows "a mixed picture" with "the past looking better than the future".
Read Yohay's US GDP preview: Expect a disappointment to down the dollar – FXStreet Surprise Index
Mixed US economic activity table hints potential negative revisions
The table shows mixed results, with plenty of hard-data indicators (lead by Durable Goods & Retail Sales) showing positive trends but the bigger business surveys hinting growing pessimism about the US economy both in the manufacturing and services sector.
That could lead to negative revisions of the 2.1% growth released in the Q2 GDP's first estimation. Check it out:
| Gross Domestic Product | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Annualized | 3 | 2.10% | Neutral | 2.47% | 3.00% | 2.76% |
| GDP Price Index | 3 | 2.50% | Neutral | 1.67% | 1.96% | 1.93% |
| Production activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Def Cap Goods exAir | 3 | 0.40% | Up | 0.90% | 0.62% | 0.30% |
| Durable Goods | 2 | 2.10% | Up | 0.93% | 0.68% | 0.49% |
| Durable Goods exDef | 2 | 1.40% | Up | 1.30% | 0.74% | 0.41% |
| Durable Goods exTrans | 2 | -0.40% | Neutral | 0.37% | 0.30% | 0.09% |
| Factory Orders MoM | 2 | 0.60% | Neutral | -0.30% | 0.10% | -0.13% |
| Industrial Production MoM | 2 | -0.20% | Neutral | 0.07% | -0.08% | 0.01% |
| Capacity Utilization | 1 | 77.50% | Down | 77.83% | 78.04% | 78.22% |
| Sales activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Control Group | 3 | 1.00% | Up | 0.73% | 0.64% | 0.36% |
| Retail Sales MoM | 2 | 0.70% | Up | 0.53% | 0.60% | 0.28% |
| Retail Sales exAutos MoM | 2 | 1.00% | Up | 0.63% | 0.64% | 0.28% |
| Business Inventories | 1 | 0.00% | Down | 0.27% | 0.22% | 0.33% |
| Wholesale Inventories | 1 | 0.00% | Down | 0.40% | 0.26% | 0.49% |
| Manufacturing Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 51.20 | Down | 51.67 | 52.62 | 54.50 |
| ISM Prices Paid | 2 | 45.10 | Down | 48.73 | 50.10 | 53.67 |
| Markit Manufacturing PMI | 2 | 49.90 | Down | 50.30 | 50.80 | 52.34 |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey | 2 | 16.80 | Up | 12.97 | 12.80 | 11.29 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 1 | 4.80 | Down | 0.17 | 5.68 | 7.90 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | 2.70 | Down | -5.23 | -3.80 | 1.59 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | 1.00 | Down | -2.67 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity | 1 | -2.00 | Down | -3.67 | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Services-related Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 53.70 | Down | 55.23 | 55.46 | 57.23 |
| Markit Services PMI | 2 | 50.90 | Down | 51.80 | 51.86 | 53.39 |
| Markit PMI Composite | 2 | 50.90 | Down | 51.67 | 51.78 | 53.25 |
| Chicago PMI | 2 | 44.40 | Down | 49.43 | 51.92 | 57.12 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 2 | -0.36 | Down | -0.14 | -0.21 | -0.10 |
| ISM - NY Business Conditions Index | 1 | 43.50 | Down | 47.37 | 57.26 | 61.38 |
| NFIB Business Optimism Index | 1 | 104.70 | Up | 104.33 | 103.66 | 103.78 |
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds firm above 1.0700 ahead of German inflation data
EUR/USD trades on a firm footing above 1.0700 early Monday. The pair stays underpinned by a softer US Dollar, courtesy of the USD/JPY sell-off and a risk-friendly market environment. Germany's inflation data is next in focus.
USD/JPY recovers after testing 155.00 on likely Japanese intervention
USD/JPY is recovering ground after crashing to 155.00 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action.
Gold price bulls move to the sidelines as focus shifts to the crucial FOMC policy meeting
Gold price struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two trading days and edges lower on the first day of a new week, albeit the downside remains cushioned.
Ripple CTO shares take on ETHgate controversy, XRP holders await SEC opposition brief filing
Ripple loses all gains from the past seven days, trading at $0.50 early on Monday. XRP holders have their eyes peeled for the Securities and Exchange Commission filing of opposition brief to Ripple’s motion to strike expert testimony.
Week ahead: FOMC and jobs data in sight
May kicks off with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and will be one to watch, scheduled to make the airwaves on Wednesday. It’s pretty much a sealed deal for a no-change decision at this week’s meeting.