US GDP Q2 second release preview: The past looks better than the future
The United States economy has been printing very solid numbers for a while now, but that pretty picture might be slowly getting uglier. Ahead of tomorrow's US Gross Domestic Product second estimation release, we take a look at the US economic activity table which, in words of our Senior Analyst Yohay Elam, shows "a mixed picture" with "the past looking better than the future".
Read Yohay's US GDP preview: Expect a disappointment to down the dollar – FXStreet Surprise Index
Mixed US economic activity table hints potential negative revisions
The table shows mixed results, with plenty of hard-data indicators (lead by Durable Goods & Retail Sales) showing positive trends but the bigger business surveys hinting growing pessimism about the US economy both in the manufacturing and services sector.
That could lead to negative revisions of the 2.1% growth released in the Q2 GDP's first estimation. Check it out:
| Gross Domestic Product | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Annualized | 3 | 2.10% | Neutral | 2.47% | 3.00% | 2.76% |
| GDP Price Index | 3 | 2.50% | Neutral | 1.67% | 1.96% | 1.93% |
| Production activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Def Cap Goods exAir | 3 | 0.40% | Up | 0.90% | 0.62% | 0.30% |
| Durable Goods | 2 | 2.10% | Up | 0.93% | 0.68% | 0.49% |
| Durable Goods exDef | 2 | 1.40% | Up | 1.30% | 0.74% | 0.41% |
| Durable Goods exTrans | 2 | -0.40% | Neutral | 0.37% | 0.30% | 0.09% |
| Factory Orders MoM | 2 | 0.60% | Neutral | -0.30% | 0.10% | -0.13% |
| Industrial Production MoM | 2 | -0.20% | Neutral | 0.07% | -0.08% | 0.01% |
| Capacity Utilization | 1 | 77.50% | Down | 77.83% | 78.04% | 78.22% |
| Sales activity | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Control Group | 3 | 1.00% | Up | 0.73% | 0.64% | 0.36% |
| Retail Sales MoM | 2 | 0.70% | Up | 0.53% | 0.60% | 0.28% |
| Retail Sales exAutos MoM | 2 | 1.00% | Up | 0.63% | 0.64% | 0.28% |
| Business Inventories | 1 | 0.00% | Down | 0.27% | 0.22% | 0.33% |
| Wholesale Inventories | 1 | 0.00% | Down | 0.40% | 0.26% | 0.49% |
| Manufacturing Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 51.20 | Down | 51.67 | 52.62 | 54.50 |
| ISM Prices Paid | 2 | 45.10 | Down | 48.73 | 50.10 | 53.67 |
| Markit Manufacturing PMI | 2 | 49.90 | Down | 50.30 | 50.80 | 52.34 |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey | 2 | 16.80 | Up | 12.97 | 12.80 | 11.29 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 1 | 4.80 | Down | 0.17 | 5.68 | 7.90 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | 2.70 | Down | -5.23 | -3.80 | 1.59 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 1 | 1.00 | Down | -2.67 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity | 1 | -2.00 | Down | -3.67 | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Services-related Surveys | Impact | Last | Trend | Last 3 | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 53.70 | Down | 55.23 | 55.46 | 57.23 |
| Markit Services PMI | 2 | 50.90 | Down | 51.80 | 51.86 | 53.39 |
| Markit PMI Composite | 2 | 50.90 | Down | 51.67 | 51.78 | 53.25 |
| Chicago PMI | 2 | 44.40 | Down | 49.43 | 51.92 | 57.12 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 2 | -0.36 | Down | -0.14 | -0.21 | -0.10 |
| ISM - NY Business Conditions Index | 1 | 43.50 | Down | 47.37 | 57.26 | 61.38 |
| NFIB Business Optimism Index | 1 | 104.70 | Up | 104.33 | 103.66 | 103.78 |
Author
Jordi Martínez
FXStreet
Jordi Martínez is the Editor in Chief at FXStreet, leading editorial operations at the company, before being promoted to the role in 2023, he worked in several editorial positions at FXStreet, including roles as Senior
