- US Dollar Index remains unchanged following the release of mixed inflation data.
- Inflation in the US declined to 2.5% on an annual basis in August.
- Annual core CPI remained steady at 3.2% in August.
- The market reaction includes a higher probability of a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basked of six other currencies, lost its ground after the release of mixed inflation data for August. Despite a decline in the overall inflation rate to 2.5% on an annual basis, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady at 3.2%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data has dampened expectations of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, increasing the likelihood of a more modest 25-basis-point reduction.
Based on economic indicators, the US economy remains robust, surpassing expectations. While the market anticipates further monetary relaxation, it is essential to temper expectations. The current growth trajectory is unlikely to warrant such aggressive easing measures. It is crucial to adopt a balanced approach, acknowledging both the economy's strength and the need for cautious optimism in decision-making.
Daily digest market movers: DXY flat after CPI figures
- Annual US CPI inflation eased to 2.5% in August from 2.9% in July, marking the lowest level since April 2018.
- Annual core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 3.2% in August, as expected.
- Monthly CPI increased 0.2%, while core CPI was up 0.3%, both above market expectations.
- As a reaction, the US Dollar is seen flat as traders reduced odds for a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut.
Daily digest market movers: DXY threatens the 20-day SMA
Technical analysis for the DXY index shows that indicators are currently in a negative territory but seem to have flattened. However, the index managed to regain the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around 101.60 on Tuesday, which improved the short-term outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both flat in negative terrain, which suggests that there is no bearish threat. That being said, on Wednesday, the upside appeared to be limited, but buyers have more room to continue advancing.
Key support levels include 101.60, 101.30 and 101.00, while resistance levels include 101.80, 102.00 and 102.30.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Extra gains need to clear 0.6400
AUD/USD rose for the third day in a row, approaching the key 0.6400 resistance on the back of the acute pullback in the US Dollar amid mounting recession concerns and global trade war fear.
EUR/USD: Powell and the NFP will put the rally to the test
EUR/USD gathered extra steam and advanced to multi-month peaks near 1.1150, although the move fizzled out somewhat as the NA session drew to a close on Thursday.
Gold looks offered near $3,100
Prices of Gold remain on the defensive on Thursday, hovering around the $3,100 region per troy ounce and retreating from earlier all-time peaks near the $3,170 level, all against the backdrop of investors' assessment of "Liberation Day".
Interoperability protocol hyperlane reveals airdrop details
The team behind interoperability protocol Hyperlane shared their upcoming token airdrop plans happening at the end of the month. The airdrop will occur on April 22, and users can check their eligibility to receive $HYPER tokens via a portal provided by the Hyperlane Foundation by April 13, the team shared in a press release with CoinDesk.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.