- The US Dollar depreciates due to heightened expectations of the US Fed reducing rates in September.
- CME FedWatch tool suggests 72.0% odds of a 50-basis point Fed rate cut in September, up from 11.8% last week.
- The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive increased safe-haven demand for the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, retraces its recent gains from the previous two sessions, trading around 103.00 during the Asian session on Thursday.
This downside of the DXY could be attributed to the rising expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing a more aggressive rate cut beginning in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 72.0% probability of a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, up from 11.8% a week earlier. The expectation of deeper rate cuts may put pressure on the US Dollar in the near term.
Weaker employment data from July have heightened concerns about a potential US recession. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in weaker than the expectation, data showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since November 2021 in July.
Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the US central bank is prepared to act if economic or financial conditions worsen. Goolsbee emphasized, "We're forward-looking about it, and so if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.” according to Reuters.
Additionally, the decline in US Treasury yields contributes to downward pressure for the US Dollar (USD), with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury yields trading around 3.94% and 3.90%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The increased risk aversion related to escalating Middle East tensions could drive greater demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. CNN reported two US intelligence officials, saying that Iran and its allies are preparing for potential retaliation against Israel in response to the recent killings of a top military commander of Iran’s Hezbollah in Lebanon and a senior Hamas leader in Tehran.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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