US Dollar advances as US yields rise, eyes on PMIs

  • The DXY Index showcases gains, jumping back above the 200-day SMA near 103.70.
  • No relevant reports were released on Tuesday, focus is set on PCE and GDP data due later this week.
  • Rising yields and markets delaying dovish bets on the Fed provide a boost to the Greenback.
  • On Wednesday, the spotlight will be on the US S&P PMIs of January

The US Dollar (USD) index has been experiencing an uptrend, with the index currently trading up to the 103.70 level. This comes in anticipation surrounding upcoming key inflation data and the impact of rising yield as markets reduced their dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US economy is maintaining its robustness as traders await key data and central bank meetings later this week. Despite a lack of major data or any Fed speakers, the market pushed back its easing expectations to roughly 125 bps over 2024, down from nearly 175 bps earlier this month, which has helped the Greenback recover. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar gains momentum as rising yields drive uptrend amid lacking high-tier reports

  • On Thursday, the US will release December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to show that inflation has stagnated. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures from Q4 are also due that day and markets expect the economic activity to have cooled off.
  • US bond yields are on the rise, with the 2-year yield at 4.40%, the 5-year yield at 4.06%, and the 10-year yield at 4.15%. All three rates are approaching their highest level in January as investors adjust their expectations on the next Fed decision. 
  • Projections from the CME FedWatch Tool show that the market's expectations for the start of the easing cycle have shifted to May.


Technical Analysis: DXY index recovers the 200-day SMA as bulls find a lift

The indicators on the daily chart reflect a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in positive territory, indicating sustained buying pressure in the market that is underscored by the appreciating slope of the RSI plot.

Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) paints a contrasting picture. The MACD histogram displays flat green bars, sporting a lack of bullish conviction. This stagnation of MACD hints at a balance in buying and selling pressures for the moment.

As for the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the DXY is trading above the 20-day SMA, indicating that the bulls maintain control in the immediate term. Nevertheless, the bearish undercurrent is evident with the index trading below the 100-day SMA. Yet the medium to long-term optimism remains as the index has recovered the crucial 200-day SMA.

Support levels: 103.50 (200-day SMA), 103.30, 103.00.
Resistance levels: 103.80, 104.00, 104.10.



Fed FAQs

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

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