|

US Dollar benefits from rising Oil price – Commerzbank

The decision of the OPEC+ countries to reduce the Oil production has caused Oil prices to jump. Within the G10 universe it was mainly the US Dollar that benefitted. Why? Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank explains the USD reaction.

“Dollar dominance” is an economic concept not an accounting concept

“If US energy production becomes more valuable because in other places (in the OPEC countries) production is falling, Oil production in the US becomes a more profitable business and attracts capital and labor. In that sense everything else the US produces also becomes ‘more valuable’.”

“The burger in New York is more valuable because it has to be produced despite the fact that those frying it could get more lucrative jobs on the Oil fields and despite the fact that those providing the capital to set up the shop could just as easily invest in shale Oil firms. That makes the burger in New York more valuable than the same burger in Hamburg, Milan or Tokyo. If this change is not reflected exclusively by the USD price of burgers in New York rising (and the Fed will certainly try to prevent that!) the USD has to appreciate, bringing the relative valuation of US/German/Italian/ Japanese Burgers in line with these new fundamentals.”

“That is why the Dollar is currently appreciating and not because the Oil price on your screen is quoted in US Dollar.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rises on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October.  Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Solana risks correction within descending wedge as bearish bets rise

Solana hovers above $120 at press time on Tuesday after a nearly 2% decline on Monday. The SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds see renewed interest after recording their lowest weekly inflow last week.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).