August CPI came in as expected, but core CPI inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.3% m/m, on higher shelter costs and pick up in core-services inflation, UOB Group Senior Economist Alvin Liew notes.
No change to the view for 25 bps cut in September FOMC
“Headline CPI was in line with expectations as it rose by 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y in August (Jul: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y). However, core CPI re-accelerated as it rose by 0.3% m/m (from 0.2% m/m in Jul) while compared to 12 months ago, it stayed elevated at 3.2% y/y. Shelter costs was the key factor driving inflation as it rose in August at the fastest m/m pace since start of 2024, while core services inflation also accelerated on a m/m basis in Aug, for the second month in a row.”
“We still expect headline CPI inflation to ease and average lower in 2024 (compared to the 4.1% recorded in 2023), but it is now likely to be higher at 2.9% than our previous forecast of 2.5%. And while core inflation may also ease, it is now likely to average 3.3% in 2024 (from previous forecast of 2.5%). It is still a significant moderation from the 4.8% average in 2023 but remains well above the Fed’s 2% objective.”
“The not-so-cool August core CPI certainly decimated expectations for a bigger 50-bps rate cut in September FOMC, but the view of Fed starting its rate cutting cycle in September remains intact. We reiterate our base case for the Fed to begin its rate cut cycle in the 17/18 September FOMC with a 25-bps cut to the Fed Funds Target Rate (FFTR) followed by another 25bps in Dec FOMC and 100 bps of cuts in 2025 (one 25- bps cuts per quarter).”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar
The US Dollar's recovery regains extra impulse sending the US Dollar Index to fresh highs and relegating EUR/USD to navigate the area of daily troughs around 1.0930 in the latter part of Friday's session.
GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850
The US Dollar's rebound keep gathering steam and now sends GBP/USD to the area of multi-week lows in the 1.2850 region amid the broad-based pullback in the risk-associated universe.
Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000
Gold prices are accelerating their daily decline, steadily approaching the critical $3,000 per troy ounce mark as the Greenback's rebound gains extra momentum and US yields tighten their retracement.
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?
Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.