Supply chains in US service sector continue to improve – TD Securities


TD Securities Global Strategy Team assess the latest ISM Services PMI report from the US.

Supply chains continue to improve

"The ISM services index came in below expectations, dropping by 1.2pp to 51.4 in March (TD: 53.0, consensus: 52.8). The decline was driven by a notable 3.5pt retreat in supplier deliveries, suggesting no issues in the deliveries pipeline as supply chains continue to improve. New orders also retreated by a meaningful 1.7pt to 54.4, which signals less perky demand ahead, all else equal."

"Also notable, the employment component failed to jump back into expansion territory, staying under the 50 mark for a second consecutive month. Moreover, prices paid continued to drop meaningfully in March, with the figure now reaching its lowest level since the early months of the pandemic. If there are any lingering price pressures in the key services sector it is hard to find them in this report."

Economic Indicator

ISM Services PMI

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector, which makes up most of the economy. The indicator is obtained from a survey of supply executives across the US based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

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Last release: Wed Apr 03, 2024 14:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 51.4

Consensus: 52.7

Previous: 52.6

Source: Institute for Supply Management

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reveals the current conditions in the US service sector, which has historically been a large GDP contributor. A print above 50 shows expansion in the service sector’s economic activity. Stronger-than-expected readings usually help the USD gather strength against its rivals. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are also watched closely by investors as they provide useful insights regarding the state of the labour market and inflation.

 

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