Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $29.50 due to increased safe-haven demand

Silver price receives support from safe-haven demand amid increased geopolitical tensions.
US President Joe Biden reportedly explored contingency plans to target Iran’s nuclear facilities
The industrial use of grey metal could advance as traders expect an economic recovery in China.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around $29.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. This sustained rally is attributed to strong safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Axios referenced three sources, indicating that US President Joe Biden reportedly explored contingency plans to target Iran’s nuclear facilities if Tehran advanced significantly in developing a nuclear bomb before Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. These talks underscore the growing concerns over Iran’s nuclear aspirations during the transition between administrations.

Reuters cited that Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, on New Year's Day early Wednesday, resulting in two deaths, at least six injuries, and damage to buildings in two districts. Meanwhile, the Israeli military maintained pressure on northern Gaza, and carried out strikes in a suburb of Gaza City on Wednesday, according to medics. Airstrikes in Shejaia, a suburb of Gaza City, killed at least eight Palestinians.

A Financial Times report noted that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) anticipates an interest rate cut this year at an appropriate time. Traders are closely monitoring the potential recovery in China’s economy and its effect on the industrial demand for Silver. President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment on Tuesday to prioritizing economic growth, promising more proactive policies to bolster China's economy in 2025.

While China's manufacturing activity showed minimal growth in December, services and construction sectors have recovered. The data indicates that policy stimulus is beginning to impact certain sectors, as China prepares for new trade risks stemming from tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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