Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD tips top of range and reverses lower


  • Silver price rises up and tips the top of a long-term range before reversing lower. 
  • It has formed a Bearish Japanese candlestick pattern, enhancing the reversal thesis. 
  • A move back down to a cluster of MAs in the 23.000s is foreseen subject to a continuation of the weakness.
     

Silver price (XAG/USD) is trading in the $24.750s on Friday, after touching the top of a multi-month range at roughly $25.700 and reversing lower. 

Silver formed a Bearish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern on the daily chart on Thursday, which reinforces the reversal and suggests more downside in the short-term. 

Silver versus US Dollar: Daily chart 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is threatening to cross below its signal line, adding credence to the bearish reversal. The MACD is a particularly reliable indicator within range-bound markets and a cross would provide a good sell signal. 

If the pair breaks below 24.405 it will probably continue south to a potential target at the cluster of major moving averages, in the lower 23.000s, starting with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 23.475. 

A break back above the 25.770 highs of Thursday, however, would indicate a probable extension of the uptrend. 

A decisive break above the range highs would indicate even more bullish momentum higher. Such a move would be expected to then reach a conservative target at the 0.618 extrapolation of the height of the range from the breakout point higher, and a target at 28.524.

 

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