|

Powell speech: A strong majority of Fed policymakers expect two or more rate hikes by year end

US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell is speaking at the Fourth Conference on Financial Stability hosted by the Bank of Spain, in Madrid, on Thursday.

Key quotes

A strong majority of fed policymakers expect two or more rate hikes by year end.

Repeats labor market 'very tight,' inflation 'well above' goal.

Some indicators in the housing market have turned up; housing sector activity still far below its peak

US core pce inflation likely rose 4.7% in May from year earlier; overall pce index estimated to have risen 3.9%.

Will take time for full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

Process of getting to 2% inflation 'has a long way to go'.

Bank stresses that emerged in march 'may well lead' to a further tightening in credit conditions.

Extent of effects from tighter credit conditions remains uncertain.

Economy faces headwinds from tighter credit conditions.

Cannot take resilience of financial system for granted.

US banking system strains have eased, deposit flows have stabilized.

I look forward to evaluating proposals for changes to supervision, regulation of banks of the size of svb, and implementing them where appropriate.

We are still monitoring the situation very carefully in the banking sector.

There is a valuation adjustment going on in commercial real estate in the US.

We still have some funding vulnerabilities.

Most banks manage interest rates risk successfully.

Expect moderate pace of interest rate decisions to continue.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index is holding the renewed upside near 103.15, up 0.26% on the day.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold seems vulnerable above $4,450 as Fed hike bets, Iran risks support USD

Gold recovers slightly from a one-and-a-half-week low, touched during the Asian session on Monday, though any meaningful recovery seems elusive. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech was perceived as hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. Adding to this, fresh US strikes on Iran keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, which acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and should cap the bullion.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP
The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.
CFTC Report: CAD short covering leads; Gold buying surges
The week in one sentence: speculative positioning shifted more constructively in the week to August 25. CAD short covering led the move, followed by a broad reduction in EUR shorts and renewed Gold buying. GBP and VIX positioning also improved, while JPY positioning deteriorated and WTI flows diverged from weaker prices.
Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.