Pound Sterling ticks up against USD after UK flash PMI, Retail Sales data, US Q4 GDP eyed

The Pound Sterling trades marginally higher to near 1.3470 against the US Dollar ahead of the flash US Q4 GDP data.
Upbeat UK Retail Sales and flash PMI data have offered support to the British currency.
The US economy is estimated to have expanded 3% YoY.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher to near 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday after recovering earlier losses. The GBP/USD pair ticks up as the Pound Sterling trades higher after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for January and the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, unexpectedly grew at a robust pace of 1.8% month-on-month (MoM). Economists expected the consumer spending measure to have risen at a moderate pace of 0.2% from 0.4% in December.

Theoretically, higher Retail Sales diminish dovish speculation for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. However, the data is unlikely to do so as UK inflation has cooled down in January and the job market conditions have deteriorated further in the three months ending in December.

UK’s Composite PMI has unexpectedly rose to 53.9 from 53.7 in January, while it was expected to drop to 53.4. Faster growth in the overall business activity was led by higher-than-expected manufacturing sector output. The Manufacturing PMI has arrived at 52.0 against estimates and the previous reading of 51.8.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly firm ahead of the release of the preliminary United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near an almost four-week high of 98.00 posted on Thursday. The US economy is expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 3%, slower than the previous reading of 4.4%.

The US Dollar has been outperforming its peers as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the January policy meeting showed on Wednesday that officials see no rush for interest rate cuts, with inflation remaining persistently above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target.

(This story was corrected on February 20 at 13:10 GMT to say that the US economy is expected to have grown at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, not faster, than the previous period.)

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.