UK flash Composite PMI expands faster to 53.9 in February

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

The United Kingdom (UK) flash Composite PMI unexpectedly rises at a faster-than-expected pace to 53.9 in February from 53.7 in January. The overall business activity was expected to expand again, but at a moderate pace to 53.4.

Faster-than-expected growth in the manufacturing sector activity led to a decent uptick in the Composite PMI. The Manufacturing PMI has arrived at 52.0, higher than estimates and the previous release of 51.8. The Services PMI ticks lower to 53.9 from 54.0 in January, but remains higher than estimates of 53.6.

Market reaction

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has reacted positively to the upbeat UK PMI data. As of writing, GBP/USD trades 0.1% higher to near 1.3475.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	-0.11%	0.25%	-0.06%	-0.06%	0.19%	0.01%
EUR	-0.03%		-0.14%	0.20%	-0.10%	-0.09%	0.17%	-0.02%
GBP	0.11%	0.14%		0.36%	0.04%	0.05%	0.30%	0.12%
JPY	-0.25%	-0.20%	-0.36%		-0.30%	-0.30%	-0.05%	-0.23%
CAD	0.06%	0.10%	-0.04%	0.30%		-0.00%	0.25%	0.08%
AUD	0.06%	0.09%	-0.05%	0.30%	0.00%		0.25%	0.07%
NZD	-0.19%	-0.17%	-0.30%	0.05%	-0.25%	-0.25%		-0.18%
CHF	-0.01%	0.02%	-0.12%	0.23%	-0.08%	-0.07%	0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

(This section below was published at 07:34 GMT as a preview of the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs data for February)

The UK Services PMI Overview

The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February to be released by the S&P Global on Friday, later this session at 09:30 GMT.

S&P Global Services PMI is expected to come in at 53.6, inching down from 54.0 recorded in the previous month.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD may struggle if the S&P Global Services PMI meets expectations, potentially offsetting support from strong UK Retail Sales as services activity is projected to slow in February.

The UK Retail Sales climbed 1.8% month-over-month (MoM) in January, exceeding 0.4% increase in December and 0.2% expected in the reported month. The core Retail Sales climbed 2.0% MoM in January, compared with the previous rise of 0.3%. This figure came in above the market consensus of a 0.2% increase.

The GBP/USD pair also faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) remains stronger following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the January meeting. The report has reignited the likelihood of potential Fed rate hikes should inflation remain persistent. While most policymakers supported keeping rates unchanged, only a few favored a cut, and officials indicated they would consider easing if inflation moderates as anticipated.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair steadies after recovering daily losses, trading around 1.3460 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an emerging bearish bias as the pair is positioned below the ascending channel pattern. The initial support is seen at the two-month low of 1.3344. On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.3524, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3548.

(This story was corrected on February 20 at 08:34 GMT to say that the initial support is seen at the two-month low of 1.3344, not high, and that the 50-day EMA is the first barrier to the upside, not to the downside.)

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.

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