Oil up as rumors on OPEC+ side meetings emerge
- WTI Oil off the lows and steady above $75 this Tuesday.
- The US Dollar is trading in the red and dips further as ECB is set to close the rate gap with the Fed.
- Oil could sink if API numbers reveal another build in US stockpiles.
Oil prices trading back above $75 and are off the monthly low levels near $72. The uptick comes as OPEC is set to have a pre-meeting to agree on overall production cuts before having its proper official OPEC+ meeting, and goes against the bearish undertone which got confirmed by Money Managers who have cut their net-long positions in WTI last week, according to the latests Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data release. Markets are starting to become less bullish on oil, however deep or prolonged OPEC+ reduction cuts migth be.
The US Dollar (USD) is off its low levels for this month as well, with US traders having resumed their normal work schedule. The Greenback is trying to erase Monday’s losses and is mildly higher in a mixed picture this Tuesday. With no less than five Federal Reserve speakers to speak, traders will be on the lookout for any guidance on the next step from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December.
Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $75.12 per barrel and Brent Oil trades at $80.10 per barrel at the time of writing.
Oil news and market movers: OPEC issues all around
- OPEC will be holding a virtual meeting on Thursday, ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later that same day, to address specific production cuts.
- Meanwhile African countries within OPEC+ are still refusing to agree on any oil output quota ahead of Thurdsay.
- Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed Money Managers have unwinded parts of their net-long positions in WTI. Brent futures are even showing their biggest discount since August.
- Russia's seaborne crude exports are rebounding again, to 3.24 million barrels per day, which is up 370,000 from November 19th earlier.
- A lack of individual comments from OPEC+ members ahead of Thursday makes tensions build for traders in terms of prepositioning.
- Meanwhile OPEC did come out with a statement, a defence of the Oil-and-Gas industry ahead of the big climate convention COP28. The statement also pushes back against the International Energy Agency (IEA) and highlights the scattered debate over how best to tackle global warming.
- Saudi Arabia continues demanding all OPEC members reduce their production quotas in a joint effort to shore up the supply side.
- As per normal, on Tuesday evening near 21:30 GMT, the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its latest stockpile figures. Previous data showed a build of 9.047 million barrels, with projections now of 2 million drawdown; possibly ending the supply build up throughout November.
Oil Technical Analysis: All factored in
Oil prices may have reached the end of the line for now in their downturn. Price pressure is building ahead of the OPEC+ decision on Thursday. This evening the API stockpile numbers are expected to show a drawdown in stockpiles for the first time in November, which could mean that the US production has reached its limits for now and will see demand soaring again on the global Oil market, while OPEC+ seeks to shore up the supply.
On the upside, $80.00 is the resistance to watch out for. Should crude be able to jump above that again, look for $84.00 (purple line) as the next level to see some selling pressure or profit taking. Should Oil prices be able to consolidate above there, the topside for this fall near $93.00 could come back into play.
On the downside, traders are seeing a soft floor forming near $74.00. This level is acting as the last line of defence before entering $70.00 and lower. Watch out for $67.00 with that triple bottom from June as the next support level to trade at.
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US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Filip Lagaart
FXStreet
Filip Lagaart is a former sales/trader with over 15 years of financial markets expertise under its belt.
