NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6550 on mixed New Zealand trade numbers

• NZD/USD keeps the 0.6544-52 range intact after marking the biggest gains in one week.
• New Zealand’s July month Trade Balance recovered from $-1.13B to $-0.12B.
• Sino-American trade deal optimism favors the bulls to counter virus woes.

NZD/USD takes rounds to 0.6550 during Wednesday’s initial Asian session. The kiwi pair recently paid a little heed to July month’s trade numbers from New Zealand. The reason could be traced from markets’ wait for the week’s key even, i.e. Jackson Hole Symposium, as well as no fresh insights from the risk front.

Data matters less than the risk catalysts, for now…

New Zealand’s Trade Balance eased from $475M MoM to $282M in July. Details suggest the imports grew more than $4.61B to $4.63B but the Exports dropped from $5.08B to $4.912B during the noted period.

Despite mostly sluggish data, the kiwi pair failed to react as traders await fresh push to extend the previous day’s upbeat performance. The pair’s biggest upside since August 18 took clues from the US-China trade deal dialogue that suggested “constructive” talks and optimism ahead.

The resulted positive mood could be ascertained in Wall Street’s upbeat performance, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s record-high closings, as well as the 4.2 basis points (bps) gains of the US 10-year Treasury yields. Though, the S&P 500 Futures pause its latest run-up that pushed the risk barometer to the all-time high near 3,448 on Tuesday.

It should be noted that the challenges to the US push for the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment and virus figures at home are factors that restrict the pair’s upside moves. Also questioning the bulls is the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of central bankers’ speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Considering the latest moves of the NZD/USD pair, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said,

The USD DXY is neither rebounding nor turning lower, and is more likely just treading water ahead of tomorrow night’s (NZT) Fed chair Powell speech on the Fed’s monetary policy framework review, the outcome of which could have significant consequences for currency markets. We all know where the RBNZ’s thinking is at, and that presents headwinds for the Kiwi.

Meanwhile, today’s US Durable Goods Orders, expected 4.3% versus 7.6% prior, can offer intermediate moves.

Technical analysis

Unless successfully breaking a 50-day SMA level around 0.6560, NZD/USD buyers are likely to be convinced. As a result, the monthly low near 0.6490/85 and a falling trend line from August 12, at 0.6460 now, remain in the traders’ eyes.