NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls taking back some airspace


  • NZD/USD bulls stepping in for a test of the bear's commitments following RBNZ flush out. 
  • The 50% mean reversion near 0.6920 is in focus.

As per the technical observations in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday, the bird fell out of the sky is what was regarded as a less hawkish outcome. 

''A dovish hike,'' it was stated, ''could consist of concern over covid contagion, geopolitical risks, the guidance of incremental 25bps hikes, contingent on various factors.'' 

it was the 25pbs incremental rate hike road map that really upset the bulls. 

RBNZ projections for the path ahead

  • Official cash rate at 0.94% in March 2022 (previously 0.86%).
  • This moves to 2.14% in December 2022 (vs the prior 1.62%).
  • Then 2.3% in March 2023 (prior 1.77%).
  • Then 2.61% in December 2024. 

On the technical side of things, 0.6950 was said to be a line in the sand in this regard and a break there was expected to open risk to a restest of the 0.6880s and then 0.68 the figure. 

We have seen 0.6880s already well and truly tested:

At this juncture, we may need to wait for next week and the market's full response to the uber hawkishness at the Federal Reserve following today's mooted response to the minutes. A correction could be in order at this juncture prior to a continuation to the downside:

The 50% mean reversion near 0.6920 is in focus.

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