- NZD/USD falls to 0.6040 as dismal market sentiment dampens the appeal of risky assets.
- The US Dollar consolidates ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting.
- The NZ GDP is forecasted to have grown by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2023.
The NZD/USD pair continues to face a sell-off and drops to 0.6040 in the late Asian session on Wednesday. The Kiwi asset is under pressure as investors have turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 18:00 GMT.
S&P 500 futures have posted some losses in the Asian session, portraying a decline in investors’ risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates around 103.85 as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of Fed policy.
The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth time in a row. While uncertainty over rate-cut projections will keep the upside in risk-sensitive assets limited. Investors hope that the Fed could support keeping interest rates higher for longer as inflation remained stubborn in February.
Investors will keenly focus on the dot plot, which gets updated quarterly and shows projections for interest rates for different timeframes.
Meanwhile, the next move in the New Zealand Dollar will be guided by domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the final quarter of 2023. The economy is anticipated to have expanded slightly by 0.1% after contracting by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2023.
An upbeat GDP data would allow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain interest rates higher for longer. However, a decline in GDP figures would suggest that the New Zealand economy is in a technical recession. The RBNZ would be in trouble as it will be needed to make a balancing act between high inflation and vulnerable economic prospects.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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