• The NZD/USD falls as traders head into the weekend, down 0.71% in the week.
  • Lack of progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine would keep investors on their toes, at least for another week.
  • NZD/USD Technical Outlook: The pair is neutral with the 100-DMA in play.

Following Monday’s 100-pip rally, the NZD/USD is set to end the week with losses, despite an upbeat market mood spurred by Russia’s President Putin saying that the discussions with Ukraine had taken a positive turn. Later it crossed the wires that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela said on Friday that “there had been zero progress in talks with Russia on Thursday,” reported Bloomberg. At 0.6812, the NZD/USD reflects the sudden shift in the market towards a risk-off

Meanwhile, the greenback remains bid, at 98.960 up 0.45%, eyes to finish the week above the 99 mark. Furthermore, rising US Treasury yields, led by the 10-year sitting at 1.979%, weighed on the commodity-linked NZD.

In the Asian session, the New Zealand macroeconomic docket featured the Business Performance of Manufacturing Index, which rose to 53.6 in February. “Underlying unease will certainly be piqued by the sustained high COVID case numbers as we go into March. The next PMI result may also see fallout from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, whose global impacts will be felt far and wide,” BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert

The US economic docket featured the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which declined from 62.8 in February to 59.7, while Inflation expectations rose to 5.4% from 4.9% in the previous reading. This was the lowest UoM Consumer Confidence reading since November of 2011, as inflation expectations rose sharply due to a surge in fuel prices exuberated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Overnight, the NZD/USD seesawed in a narrow range. However, the NZD/USD broke downwards once European trading began, dipping towards the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) and extending its losses beyond that level as bears eye the February 23 high previous resistance/support at 0.6809.

That said, the NZD/USD is neutral-downwards biased, as bulls/bears battle to reclaim the 100-day moving average (DMA) around 0.6824.

In the event of a daily close below the 100-DMA, the NZD/USD first support would be 0.6809 the February 23 resistance/support. Breach of the latter would expose the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.6777, followed by the confluence of the 50-DMA and the 50% Fibonacci level around the 0.6733-43 area.

Otherwise, the NZD/USD first resistance would be March 9 daily high at 0.6752. Once cleared, the following resistance areas would be January 13 high at 0.6890 and the YTD high at 0.6925.

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6812
Today Daily Change -0.0054
Today Daily Change % -0.79
Today daily open 0.6866
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6747
Daily SMA50 0.673
Daily SMA100 0.6831
Daily SMA200 0.6926
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6875
Previous Daily Low 0.6811
Previous Weekly High 0.6873
Previous Weekly Low 0.6665
Previous Monthly High 0.681
Previous Monthly Low 0.6565
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6851
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6835
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6826
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6787
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6762
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.689
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6915
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6954

 

 

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