Notwithstanding concerns surrounding a wider Middle East war, which could disrupt oil flows from the region, China stimulus disappointment and OPEC+ producer plans to bring barrels back in the coming months have put the crude oil market at risk of a sharp correction. The pending surplus in early-2025, stemming from lackluster global demand and robust supply growth, may well see crude oil price trade significantly below current levels in 2025, TDS’ Head of Commodity Strategy Bart Melek notes
OPEC+ production cuts may become unnecessary
“The extension of the current OPEC+ production suppression regime, which features significant member overproduction, does not look to be sufficient to keep the market in balance next year. In the absence of the current war premium, the markets will likely need to see OPEC+ comply with production quotas and further delay the unwind of production cuts in order to prevent a drift into a $50-60/b range.”
“With non-OPEC+ production projected to jump by some 1.5m b/d and demand growing by just under one million b/d, the current inventory levels suggest that some 500k b/d of reduction from current production levels is required to preserve a rough market balance and prevent a drop lower.”
“The risk of a broader Middle East conflict, which could see oil supplies from the region disrupted as tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz and flows from Gulf States slow sharply, could well make OPEC+ production cuts unnecessary. Indeed, if tanker and pipeline flows from the region are interrupted due to military attacks, shortages may quickly materialize, with prices hitting triple digits for a prolonged period.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fails to gather traction, remains below 1.1700
EUR/USD fails to gather momentum, trading below 1.1700 at the end of the week. The pair is pulled down by dwindling prospects for an EU-US trade accord, as US President Trump is expected to send a tariff letter to the European Union later today, while the continued demand for the US Dollar also keeps the risk complex under extra pressure.
Meme coins to watch as Bitcoin hits record high
Meme coins Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki are positioned to extend gains as the weekly recovery reaches crucial resistance levels. The meme coins gain bullish momentum on the back of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery run, hitting a new all-time high on Thursday.
Gold challenges two-week highs near $3,360
Gold gains upside impulse at the end of the week, trading near the $3,360 mark per troy ounce in respose to solid demand from te safe-haven space. Persistent trade uncertainty underpins the ongoing risk-off mood among investors, lending extra wings to the precious metal.
GBP/USD drops below 1.3500, flirts with three-week lows
GBP/USD continues its weekly retracement on Friday, trading at its lowest level in nearly three weeks below the 1.3500 support. The UK's poor GDP statistics drags on the British pound, while the US Dollar continues to profit from safe-haven flows, sending Cable and its risk-related peers to lower levels.
Week ahead – A storm of CPI data and China’s GDP in focus amid trade uncertainty
Dollar attracts safe haven flows amid trade anxiety. US inflation data could shake July Fed cut probability. UK, Canadian and Japanese CPI numbers also on tap. Weak Chinese growth may increase calls for more stimulus.
Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.