Mexican Peso weakens after Mexican inflation data

  • The Mexican Peso weakens in most key pairs after the release of Mexican inflation data.
  • The data showed a greater-than-expected rise in the CPI but core CPI met estimates. 
  • USD/MXN’s short-term trend may have reversed from bullish to bearish.  

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades lower in most pairs on Wednesday following the release of Mexican mid-month inflation data for April, on Wednesday. After a delayed reaction the Peso began unwinding in its most heavily-traded pairs. This comes despite the data showing a rise in the rate of headline inflation in March, although the arguably more representative core CPI only met estimates. 

Mexican Peso falls after release of CPI data 

The Mexican Peso fell after a delay following the release of Mexican 1st half-month inflation in March. the data showed inflation rose to 4.63% on a year-over-year basis from 4.48% previous and the same expected. On month, prices rose by 0.09% when a decline of 0.03% had been forecast after rising 0.27% in the previous reading, according to data from the INEGI. 

1st half-month core inflation, meanwhile, rose at a slower 4.39%YoY in March as forecast, down from 4.69% previously. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose 0.16% in line with estimates, and down from the 0.33% previous print.  

Mexican Peso benefits from subdued Manufacturing data in US, Europe

On Tuesday the Mexican Peso gained in its key pairs – USD/MXN, EUR/MXN and GBP/MXN – after the release of PMI data showed cracks in most developed economies. The Manufacturing PMI gauges were particularly low, and in the US it fell unexpectedly into contraction territory below 50.0, clocking in at 49.9, which was well below the estimated 52.0 and March’s print at 51.9. 

In the UK, the manufacturing PMI also fell below 50, coming in at 48.7, from 50.3 previously, while in the Eurozone it fell to 45.6, missing estimates of an increase to 46.5. 

Conversely, services sector PMIs rose by a greater-than-expected margin in most countries – bar the US.  

Despite this, markets dialed forward their expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve (Fed). 

Markets may be being optimistic about rate cuts, however, according to analysts at Rabobank, who quote a paragraph in the PMI reports stating that factory-cost pressures remain elevated. 

“Yesterday’s manufacturing PMIs shouted ‘stagflation’, even if some heard ‘rate cuts’,” the Rabobank note said. 

“..but its (the PMI report’s) fine print said: ‘Manufacturing has now registered the steeper rate of price increases in three of the past four months, with factory cost pressures intensifying in April amid higher raw material and fuel prices, contrasting with the wage-related services-led price pressures seen throughout much of 2023’,” the Rabobank note continues, suggesting the impact on FX could be short-lived. 

Technical Analysis: USD/MXN short-term trend now likely down

USD/MXN has probably reversed its short-term uptrend after breaking below the key 17.00 hurdle, the previous higher low – and more weakness is now expected as bears take control.  

USD/MXN 4-hour Chart 

The next key support level lies at 16.86, where a major Moving Average also sits, providing dynamic support on a higher time frame chart. A decisive break below could usher in further weakness to 16.50 and then the April 9 lows at 16.26.

It will now take a decisive break above the major trendline for the long-term downtrend at roughly 17.45 to give bulls renewed confidence, and activate an upside target at roughly 18.15. 

A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green daily candlestick that pierces above the trendline and closes near its high, or three green candlesticks in a row that pierce above the level. 

Economic Indicator

1st half-month Inflation

The 1st half-month core inflation index released by the Bank of Mexico is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of Mexican Peso is dragged down by inflation. The inflation index is a key indicator since it is used by the central bank to set interest rates. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Mexican Peso, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Read more.

Last release: Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 0.09%

Consensus: -0.03%

Previous: 0.27%

Source: National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico


Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0850 as markets assess Fed commentary

EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0850 as markets assess Fed commentary

EUR/USD trades in a tight range at around 1.0850 on Tuesday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, the cautious market mood helps the USD hold its ground and limits the pair's upside. Meanwhile, investors continue to scrutinize comments from central bank officials.


GBP/USD stays in positive territory above 1.2700, awaits fresh catalysts

GBP/USD stays in positive territory above 1.2700, awaits fresh catalysts

GBP/USD struggles to stretch higher above 1.2700 on Tuesday as the mixed action in Wall Street supports the USD. Investors await fresh catalysts, with several Fed officials and BoE Governor Bailey set to speak later in the session. 


Gold steadies around $2,420 ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold steadies around $2,420 ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold gained traction and climbed to $2,430 area in the American session, turning positive on the day. The pullback in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield helps XAU/USD stage a rebound following the sharp retreat seen from the all-time high set at the weekly opening at $2,450.

Gold News

Shiba Inu price flashes buy signal, 25% rally likely Premium

Shiba Inu price flashes buy signal, 25% rally likely

Shiba Inu price has flipped bullish to the tune of the crypto market and breached key hurdles, showing signs of a potential rally. Investors looking to accumulate SHIB have a good opportunity to do so before the meme coin shoots up.

Read more

Three fundamentals for the week: UK inflation, Fed minutes and Flash PMIs stand out Premium

Three fundamentals for the week: UK inflation, Fed minutes and Flash PMIs stand out

Sell in May and go away? That market adage seems outdated in the face of new highs for stocks and Gold. Optimism depends on the easing from central banks – and some clues are due this week.

Read more