Nomura Asia Economic Monthly note outlines the number of scenarios that could unfold under Trump presidency and their possible implications for Asia.
Key points
US Higher growth/higher inflation scenario – Implications for Asia
Positive growth in Q1 and perhaps Q2 as Asia’s nascent export recovery continues. However, the economic upswing does not last with a spate of corporate defaults and growth turning down in H2, since Asia’s export-orientated and debt-loaded economies are very exposed to Fed hikes, US trade protectionism and China risks. India’s economy would be the most insulated, and at the opposite end of the spectrum, Hong Kong.
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