IMF revises global economic growth forecast for 2024 higher to 3.1% from 2.9%

In its updated World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it revised the forecast for global economic growth in 2024 higher to 3.1% from 2.9% in October, per Reuters.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that growth was still slower than the historical average of 3.8%, reflecting high interest rates and low productivity growth. The global economy is displaying a remarkable resilience and it's on the final descent toward a soft landing, he added.

Key takeaways

"Global average oil prices to drop 2.3% in 2024 vs 0.7% drop forecast in October; 4.8% decline seen in 2025 vs 4.9% decline."

"IFM sees US GDP growth of 2.1% in 2024 vs 1.5% in October, with growth to ease to 1.7% in 2025 vs earlier forecast of 1.8%."

"IMF revises down Euro area GDP growth forecast to 0.9% in 2024 vs 1.2% in October; 1.7% in 2025 vs 1.8%."

"IMF revises down German GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2024 vs 0.9% in October, sees 2025 growth of 1.6% vs 2.0% in October."

"IMF lifts China GDP forecast to 4.6% in 2024 vs 4.2% in October; leaves 2025 forecast unchanged at 4.1%."

"IMF sees relatively limited impact of continued attacks in Red Sea on global inflation or growth outlooks."

"IMF expects Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England to keep interest rates at current levels until second half of 2024 before gradual decline."

"Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains appropriate, but BoJ should be ready to raise rates if inflation rises."

Market reaction

This report failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged on the day at 103.45.

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