Gold (XAU/USD) has taken a hit in recent months. After hitting a record high of $2,063/oz in August, the yellow metal has struggled to find another source of lift. However, gold’s outlook remains positive and strategists at ANZ Bank maintain a 12-month target of $2,100/oz. 

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Key quotes

“With the prospects of an imminent coronavirus vaccine, the likelihood of a strong global recovery and a rally in risk assets continues to improve. This could take some shine off gold’s haven appeal. The yellow metal has traditionally been a strong performer during weak economic periods due to its strong defensive characteristics. However, we don’t think this will scuttle gold’s current rise higher.”

“Gold’s main drivers, real interest rates and the US dollar are likely to provide support over the coming year. Using the US Federal Reserve’s forecasts for rates and inflation, real rates should continue to push into negative territory. And a strong global growth pulse should see the USD weaken further.”

“Our gold valuation model suggests gold should trade around $2,100/oz next year, assuming US inflation rises to 1.7%, USD index falls to 90 and  yields on 30Y bonds hold steady around 1.6%. That said, we also acknowledge headwinds in the short-term. The continued strength in equity markets is likely to see further investor rotation out of gold-backed ETFs and into equities. We have subsequently cut our 0-3 month target to $1900/oz. However, we maintain our 12-month target of $2,100/oz.”

 

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