• Gold soars above $2,330 as investors bet on Fed rate cuts later this year.
  • Risk aversion due to European political turmoil boosts demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
  • US Consumer Sentiment dips in June, inflation expectations remain above Fed’s 2% target.
  • XAU/USD is underpinned by fall of 10-year US Treasury yield.

Gold's price spiked during the North American session on Friday after inflation data in the United States (US) increased investors' hopes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates later this year. Additionally, risk aversion, spurred by Europe’s political uncertainty, triggered a flight to safety, bolstering the golden metal.

The XAU/USD trades at $2,333, gaining more than 1.30% after bouncing off daily lows of $2,301. Sentiment remains sour, yet US equities recovered some during the last hour of trading, with the Nasdaq up 0.28%, while the S&P 500 trims its earlier losses, shy of being flat on the day at -0.10%.

On the data front, US Consumer Sentiment deteriorated in June, while inflation expectations for one and five years remained above the Fed’s 2% goal. Meanwhile, US inflation data revealed during the week was cheered by investors, who still bet that the US central bank will slash rates twice instead of just once, as policymakers projected.

Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows traders expect 39 basis points (bps) of easing during the year via December’s 2024 fed funds rate contract.

The US 10-year Treasury note yield dropped three bps to 4.211%, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal, shrugging off China’s bullion purchasing pause.

News that the People’s Bank of China paused its 18-month bullion buying spree weighed on the precious metal. PBOC holdings held steady at 72.80 million troy ounces of Gold in May.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price strengthens amid strong US Dollar

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 0.28% to 105.53, capping Gold prices.
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 65.6 in June from 69.1, missing the consensus estimate of 72. This marks the lowest level of sentiment in seven months.
  • Inflation expectations for the next twelve months are projected to remain unchanged at 3.3%; while for the five-year period, inflation expectations are anticipated to decrease to 3.1%, down from the previous 3.3%.
  • On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that they are less confident about inflation than previously "in order to cut." He added, "If jobs are to weaken unexpectedly, the Fed is ready to respond." When asked about the US CPI report, Powell noted that it is just one report and emphasized the need to see the deflation process evolving toward the Fed’s goal.
  • Despite US CPI report showing disinflation process continuing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that they remain “less confident” about the progress on inflation.
  • Even though the latest US CPI and PPI reports were weaker than expected, the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index survey for May showed that businesses are struggling with higher prices and access to cheap financing.

Technical analysis: Gold price sellers regain control as prices are headed toward $2,300

Gold price is neutral to downwardly biased as the Head-and-Shoulders chart pattern remains in place, suggesting the stage is set for further downside. Although momentum shows buyers’ recovery, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, suggesting that the uptrend could be short-lived and open the door for further losses.

If Gold extends its gains past the June 7 cycle high of $2,387, it will be ready to test the $2,400 figure. Conversely, if XAU/USD drops below $2,300, the first support would be the May 3 low of $2,277, followed by the March 21 high of $2,222. Further losses lie beneath, as sellers would eye the Head-and-Shoulders chart pattern objective at around $2,170 to $2,160.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Australian Dollar holds gains ahead of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Australian Dollar holds gains ahead of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Australian Dollar recovers its losses as soft US inflation data raises expectations of Fed reducing rates. China's Trade Balance for June came in at $99.05 billion, widening from the previous figure of $82.62 billion. Fed’s Goolsbee stated that the US economy appears to be on track to achieve 2% target inflation.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD: The door appears open to extra gains in the near term

EUR/USD: The door appears open to extra gains in the near term

Another auspicious week saw EUR/USD trade with decent gains and extend its positive streak for the third consecutive week, including a visit to the key 1.0900 region for the first time since early June.

EUR/USD News

Gold turns bullish as US data bolster case for Fed rate cut in September

Gold turns bullish as US data bolster case for Fed rate cut in September

Gold gathered bullish momentum and climbed above $2,400 on broad-based USD weakness. Investors expect the Fed to reduce the policy rate in September after soft inflation data. XAU/USD could target a new all-time high once $2,400 is confirmed as support.

Gold News

Three reasons why Chainlink could rally

Three reasons why Chainlink could rally

Chainlink holders have consistently realized losses in July. On-chain trackers have identified accumulation by large wallet investors, however the overall trend is whales shedding their holdings. 

Read more

Trump safe after shots fired in assassination attempt at Pennsylvania rally

Trump safe after shots fired in assassination attempt at Pennsylvania rally

In a fateful incident during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday, Former President Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt. Several bullet shots were fired at Donald Trump’s rally and one such shot ripped the upper part of his right ear.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures