Gold recoils on hawkish Fed moves, unfazed by dropping yields and softer US Dollar
- Gold stabilizes at $2,305, down 0.60% amid positive sentiment, lower US Treasury yields, softer USD.
- Fed holds fed funds rate, tweaks to QT program influence market dynamics.
- Chair Powell urges caution on rate changes pending clearer inflation progress.
Gold price clings to the $2,300 figure in the mid-North American session on Thursday amid an upbeat market sentiment, falling US Treasury yields, and a softer US Dollar. Traders are still digesting Wednesday’s comments of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, and the US central bank's decision to hold rates unchanged. Meanwhile, data showed the US trade deficit narrowed a tick, and the labor market is still tight.
The XAU/USD trades at $2,305, down by 0.60%. Market participants expected a more hawkish tilt by the Fed, which remained neutral. The central bank delivered a neutral monetary policy statement and announced that it would reduce the pace of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.
During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it wouldn’t be appropriate to cut rates until they have confidence that inflation is trending toward its 2% goal, adding that this year's inflation data “has not given us that greater confidence.” They would decide monetary policy “meeting by meeting,” while adding that slowing the pace of balance sheet runoff “will ensure a smooth transition for money markets.”
He added the Fed’s belief that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation and disregarded the potential of hiking rates when asked.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%- 5.50%. In their statement, they noted that the risks associated with achieving the Fed's dual mandate, which focuses on employment and inflation, have become more balanced over the past year. Despite acknowledging progress on inflation, they also recognized that recent data suggest this progress has stalled.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price stays firm amid steady US Dollar, falling US yields
- Gold prices remain underpinned by lower US Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar. The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.579%, down five basis points (bps) from its opening level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against six other currencies, edged down 0.23% and is at 105.39.
- The US Trade Balance data revealed a slight narrowing of the deficit by -0.1%, moving from $69.5 billion to $69.4 billion, which fell short of the expected $69.1 billion. This change was due to a -1.6% decrease in imports, which totaled $327 billion, and a -2.0% decline in exports, which dropped to $257.6 billion.
- Additionally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 27 remained steady at 208K, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the anticipated 212K.
- On Wednesday, the Fed decided to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50 %. They acknowledged that risks to achieving the Fed’s dual mandate on employment and inflation “moved toward better balance over the past year.” Although they said there’s progress on inflation, recent data showed that it has stalled.
- Fed policymakers added that they would begin reducing their balance sheet holdings of US Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion starting in June.
- On May 3, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to reveal April’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which are expected to come at 243K, below March’s 303K. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to stay at 3.8%, while Average Hourly Earnings would likely remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM.
- Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests that traders expect the fed funds rate to finish 2024 at 5.045%, down from 5.100% on Wednesday.
Technical analysis: Gold price drops but stays above $2,300
Gold’s uptrend remains in place, though buyers had failed to push prices past the April 26 high of $2,352, which could open the door to challenging $2,400. Further upside is seen at the April 19 high at $2,417 and the all-time high of $2,431.
Momentum favors XAU/USD’s bulls, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Despite trending lower, the RSI remains above the 50-midline, suggesting that buyers are in control.
On the flip side, a bearish continuation looms if Gold sellers drive prices below $2,300, exacerbating a pullback toward the April 23 daily low of $2,291. Subsequent losses are expected, beneath the March 21 daily high, which turned support at $2,223, followed by $2,200.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.
