|

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD treads water around $1,740 amid USD strength

  • Gold Price trades on the defensive after Friday’s positive close.
  • US NFP beat trigger two-way businesses in the yellow metal.
  • XAUUSD hovers near nine-month lows, with eyes on US inflation.

Gold Price is moving back and forth in a familiar range around the $1,740 level, as the US dollar sees fresh buying at the start of the week. Investors digest Friday’s stellar US Nonfarm Payrolls report while assessing the Fed rate hike expectations.

The US economy added 372,000 jobs in June vs. expectations of 268,000 addition while the Unemployment Rate steadied at 3.6%. The solid US labor market offered a tailwind to the aggressive Fed tightening expectations, keeping the sentiment around the dollar buoyed.

Moreover, the risk-off mood in Asian trading, with the renewed concerns over Chinese covid lockdowns and their impact on global growth, added to the greenback’s strength.

Although the retreat in the US 10-year Treasury yields from multi-day highs helps cushion the downside in the bright metal. Persistent risk-off flows boost the safe-haven appeal of the American government bonds, dragging yields lower.

Meanwhile, markets grieve over the shocking assassination of the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Further, a sense of caution prevails ahead of the critical US inflation data due later this week, which leaves gold bulls in the back seat.

In the meantime, the Fed sentiment and recession fears will continue to influence the broader market theme, eventually impacting the dollar valuations and gold price action. The US economic calendar remains light on Monday; therefore, the focus will be on the Fed official Williams speech.

Gold Price: Daily chart

“On the upside, $1,765 (former support, static level) aligns as the first technical resistance ahead of $1,790 (former support, static level). On the downside, $1,730 (July 8 low) forms interim support ahead of $1,720 (static level) and $1,700 (psychological level),” FXStreet’s Senior Analyst, Eren Sengezer explained in his gold weekly forecast.

Gold Price: Additional levels to consider

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1741.74
Today Daily Change-0.78
Today Daily Change %-0.04
Today daily open1742.56
 
Trends
Daily SMA201809.35
Daily SMA501833.74
Daily SMA1001885.92
Daily SMA2001845.84
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1752.49
Previous Daily Low1730.73
Previous Weekly High1814.37
Previous Weekly Low1730.73
Previous Monthly High1879.26
Previous Monthly Low1802.79
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1744.18
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1739.04
Daily Pivot Point S11731.36
Daily Pivot Point S21720.17
Daily Pivot Point S31709.6
Daily Pivot Point R11753.12
Daily Pivot Point R21763.69
Daily Pivot Point R31774.88

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Week ahead: Fed, BoE and BoJ face inflation test as markets reprice interest rate paths
The US dollar gained against the other major currencies this week amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East as well as US President Trump’s decision to proceed with a new round of tariffs after previously imposed levies expired.
Australian Dollar outlook: Chances of another rally won’t be decided in Canberra, but in Washington

The Australian Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the first half of the year, hitting a four-year high and then correcting. The currency enters the second half with an outlook full of uncertainty due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which clouds the inflation outlook and interest rates.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.