Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades on weaker note below $2,300 ahead of US NFP data

Gold Price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,285 during the early Asian session on Friday after reaching another fresh record high above $2,300 in the previous session. The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the expectation of monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) might lift the yellow metal. Market players await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for March on Friday for fresh impetus, which is expected to see 200K jobs added in March. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners, recovers to 104.20, bouncing off two-week lows of 103.90. The US Treasury bond yields edge lower, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.30%. 

On Thursday, the US Initial Jobless Claims last week went up to the highest level since January, according to the Labor Department. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed to 221K for the week ended March 30 compared to the previous week of 212K, worse than the estimation of 214K. Meanwhile, Continuing Claims dropped to 1.791M in the week ending March 23. 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the policy rate is likely at its peak in the current cycle while adding that FOMC policymakers see it’s appropriate to begin cutting the policy rate if the economy evolves as the Fed expects. These dovish comments create a tailwind for the precious metal.

Furthermore, the Guardian reported late Thursday that Israel has postponed leave for combat troops and increased its air defense command to prepare for any Iranian missile or drone attacks after the recent bombing in Syria killed two Iranian military commanders. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost traditional safe-haven asset like gold in the near term. 

Moving on, the US employment data for March, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings will be in the spotlight on Friday. The stronger outcome might provide some support to the Greenback and cap the upside of USD-denominated gold.