Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits US data to break the monotony above $1,800

  • Gold trades in a relatively tight range on Tuesday.
  • XAU/USD continues to fluctuate between key moving averages.
  • Focus shifts to ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data from US.

Update: Gold (XAU/USD) remains sidelined around $1,810 amid early Asian morning on Wednesday, after posting mild losses the previous day.

The metal struggled for clear direction on Tuesday even as market sentiment was mildly positive and the US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to lure bulls despite upbeat Factory Orders for July.

The reason could be linked to the fresh geopolitical tussles concerning Iran and China, as well as the spike in the US covid cases versus easing infections at other developed nations. Additionally, hopes over US President Joe Biden-backed stimulus passage and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) record allocation to the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to battle the pandemic, not to forget upbeat earnings results, were extra positive that kept traders optimistic.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed positive but the US 10-year Treasury yields remained unchanged.

Gold traders may closely observe risk catalysts for immediate direction to break the sideways moves between the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, respectively around $1,803 and $1,820. Also important are the monthly readings of the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMIs.


Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged at $1,814. On Tuesday, the XAU/USD pair continues to move up and down in a narrow range as investors wait for the next significant catalyst.

Earlier in the day, the data from the US showed that Factory Orders rose by 1.5%, or $7.4 billion, in June. Although this reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 1%, it was largely ignored by market participants. Additionally, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index edged lower to 53.6 in August from 54.3 in July. Following these data releases, the US Dollar Index stays flat on the day at 92.07.

Commenting on the USD's market valuation and its impact on gold prices, "we think the ongoing view that inflation spikes are mostly transitory and that the FOMC is not actively considering policy adjustments at the moment is mildly bullish gold at best and neutral at worst," said HSBC analysts. “In our view, no policy change, only a modest shift in the statement’s language and no new taper insights have understandably fostered little USD change, for now.”

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said factors crimping the labour supply were temporary and added she expects most of the people who lost their jobs during the pandemic to return to the labour force as the economy recovers.

On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change data and the ISM's Services PMI will be looked upon for fresh impetus. However, the market reaction to these data could remain muted ahead of Friday's highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report.

US ADP Employment Change July Preview: Jobs gains in service sector to slowdown.

ISM Services PMI Preview: Business psychology begins to deteriorate.

Gold technical outlook

Gold technical outlook remains neutral as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to stay flat around 50. Additionally, the price is still stuck between key moving averages.

On the upside, the first hurdle aligns at $1,820 (200-day SMA). In case gold makes a daily close above that level, it could aim for $1,825 (50-day SMA) and $1,835 (July 15 high).

Supports, on the other hand, are located at $1,810 (20-day SMA), $1,800 (100-day SMA, psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the April-June uptrend) and $1,790 (July 23 low). Nevertheless, a drop below $1,810 could be ignored by sellers and the bearish momentum is likely to gather strength once the price declines below $1,800.

Additional levels to watch for


Today last price 1810.83
Today Daily Change -3.01
Today Daily Change % -0.17
Today daily open 1813.84
Daily SMA20 1809.41
Daily SMA50 1827.09
Daily SMA100 1801.97
Daily SMA200 1820.43
Previous Daily High 1819.61
Previous Daily Low 1805.87
Previous Weekly High 1832.77
Previous Weekly Low 1792.65
Previous Monthly High 1834.17
Previous Monthly Low 1765.74
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1811.12
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1814.36
Daily Pivot Point S1 1806.6
Daily Pivot Point S2 1799.37
Daily Pivot Point S3 1792.86
Daily Pivot Point R1 1820.34
Daily Pivot Point R2 1826.85
Daily Pivot Point R3 1834.08



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1300 area as NFP-inspired dollar weakness fades

EUR/USD jumped to a daily high of 1.1333 with the initial market reaction to the disappointing November Nonfarm Payrolls data but quickly returned below 1.1300. Rising US Treasury bond yields seem to be helping the dollar stay resilient against its major rivals. 


GBP/USDdrops to 1.3250 area as dollar regains strength

GBP/USD spiked above 1.3300 in the early American session with the initial market reaction to the gloomy US November jobs report. However, the greenback regathered strength on hawkish Fed commentary and forced the pair to turn south.


Gold struggles to capitalize on weak NFP data, holds near $1,770

Gold spiked to a daily high near $1,780 with the initial market reaction to the disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US but seems to be having a difficult time preserving its bullish momentum with the 10-year US T-bond yield staying resilient.

Gold News

The bull and the bear case for BTC

Bitcoin price saw a bullish impulse that faced massive headwinds before it tagged a crucial psychological barrier. Bitcoin is likely to experience massive volatility as the situation resolves over time. 

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!