Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,350, geopolitical risks remain in focus


  • Gold price trades softer around $2,325 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • The US PCE price index was not sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, weighing on the yellow metal. 
  • Israeli Prime Minister begrudgingly accepted the US President's plan for a ceasefire in Gaza on Sunday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,325 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The yellow metal trims gains after the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April showed price pressures cooled in April. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East geopolitical risks might provide some support to gold, traditional safe-haven assets. 

The recent US PCE inflation report was not sufficient to prompt a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, and the central bank might need some time to achieve its goal. Investors initially anticipated the first rate cut to come in March, but it got pushed to September. This, in turn, weighs on the precious metal as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. 

The US PCE price index rose 0.3% MoM in April, while the annual PCE figure increased 2.7% YoY. Both figures came in as expected, according to the Commerce Department, on Friday. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy, advanced 0.2% MoM in April as compared to a 0.3% gain in March. On an annual basis, the core PCE price index climbed 2.8% for the third consecutive month.

On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration reluctantly agreed to President Biden's proposal for a Gaza cease-fire. The negotiations take place as the attack in Rafah continues after intensive Israeli airstrikes over the weekend, per the BBC. Investors will monitor the developments surrounding the geopolitical tensions. Any signs of escalating risks could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the gold price. 

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 2325.17
Today Daily Change -2.17
Today Daily Change % -0.09
Today daily open 2327.34
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 2356.94
Daily SMA50 2327.22
Daily SMA100 2196.2
Daily SMA200 2081.98
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 2359.75
Previous Daily Low 2320.65
Previous Weekly High 2364.15
Previous Weekly Low 2320.65
Previous Monthly High 2450.1
Previous Monthly Low 2277.31
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2335.59
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2344.81
Daily Pivot Point S1 2312.08
Daily Pivot Point S2 2296.81
Daily Pivot Point S3 2272.98
Daily Pivot Point R1 2351.18
Daily Pivot Point R2 2375.01
Daily Pivot Point R3 2390.28

 

 

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