Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD teases $1,800 on steady USD, risk-off mood
- Gold closed the previous five trading days in the positive territory.
- Next resistance is located at $1,815 ahead of $1,830.
- US Treasury bond yields continue to fall after of FOMC Minutes.
Update: Gold prices lack momentum and move with a familiar trading range on Thursday. XAU/USD traded at 3-week highs slightly above the $1,800 mark.
Investor's risk appetite improves after FOMC minutes showed that Fed officials remained concerned about the economic recovery uncertainty and disagree over the tapering of the mortgage bond purchase program. The US 10-year benchmark yields retreated towards 1.3% as a reaction to the Fed’s minute. The concerns of higher inflation and subsequently sooner-than-expected interest rate hikes expectations cooled down, which drove the US Treasury yields lower. Lower US bond yields enhance the attractiveness of the non-yielding assets. The US dollar stayed elevated above $92.70, despite softer economic data. The greenback keeps the gains limited for gold prices. The worsening coronavirus infection cases in Asia-pacific provided some ground for the yellow metal on its safe-haven appeal.
Update, July 7: The XAU/USD pair showed little to no reaction to the FOMC's June 15-16 meeting minutes and remains on track to post daily gains for the sixth straight trading day on Wednesday. As of writing, gold was up 0.5% on the day at $1,806.
The Fed's publication didn't offer any fresh insights regarding the timing of tapering but showed that some policymakers saw the uncertainty around the economic outlook elevated after the latest data. According to the statement, the committee's standard of "substantial further progress" was generally seen as not having yet been met. The USD struggled to preserve its strength following the FOMC Minutes and erased its daily gains to turn flat around 92.60, helping XAU/USD remain afloat in the positive territory.
Breaking: Some FOMC policymakers see elevated uncertainty around economic outlook.
Despite a sharp pullback in the second half of the day, gold manages to close the fifth straight trading day in the positive territory on Tuesday. Although the greenback continues to outperform its rivals on Wednesday, the XAU/USD pair stays in the positive territory above $1,800.
In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, the sharp decline witnessed in the US Treasury bond yields allows gold to continue to find demand. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which lost more than 6% on Tuesday, is currently at its lowest level since mid-February at 1.313%, down nearly 3% on a daily basis.
Earlier in the session, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of May was little changed at 9.2 million.
On the other hand, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, climbed to its strongest level in three months at 92.84 on Wednesday, possibly limiting XAU/USD's upside.
Later in the day, the FOMC will release the minutes of its June meeting. Previewing this publication, "the minutes are unlikely to provide specifics of economic conditions or timing of the coming policy shift," said FXStreet senior analyst Joseph Trevisani. "The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming policy symposium may be a more congenial atmosphere for the Fed officials to admit and explore the conditions for a bond taper but the minutes of the June FOMC could contain the official agenda"
Gold technical outlook
In case gold ends up closing the day above $1,800 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement of April-June uptrend), it could target $1,815 (July 6 high) ahead of $1,829 (200-day SMA).
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart is floating near 50, suggesting that sellers look hesitant to retain control.
On the flip side, additional losses toward $1,790 (100-day SMA) if XAU/USD fails to hold above $1,800. $1,770 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be seen as the next support.
Credit Suisse analysts think that gold could target $1,829. "Gold has again held price support at $1765/55, and we look for strength back to the 200-day average at $1829," analysts said. "A close above here is needed to open the door to a move back to more important resistance at $1940/66.”
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to advance nicely towards the 200-DMA at $1829 – Credit Suisse.
Additional levels to watch for
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
