Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims a break above $1,740 ahead of US PMI

Gold price (XAU/USD) is attempting a break above $1,740.00 on mixed estimates for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Earlier, the precious metal rebounded sharply after printing a fresh monthly low of $1,727.85 on Monday. The pullback move seems less lucrative due to the unavailability of momentum in the upside move, therefore the gold prices will remain on the tenterhooks.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to land at 51.5, lower than the prior print of 52.2. However, the Services PMI could improve meaningfully to 49.1 vs. the former figure of 47.3.

The downbeat preliminary estimates for the US Durable Goods Orders have supported the yellow metal. As per the market consensus, the economic data is expected to scale down vigorously to 0.5% from the prior release of 2%. It is worth noting that core price pressures remained steady in the last reading at 5.9%. Therefore, the Durable Goods Orders data should remain the same or go through a minor change. However, a serious decline in the economic data indicates a plunge in the overall demand.

Apart from that, the commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will remain in limelight. Fed Powell will dictate the economic situation in the US and guidance on inflationary pressures and interest rates.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, gold prices are aiming to extend their recovery after rebounding from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from July 21 low at $1,680.91 to August 10 high at $1,807.93) at $1,729.44. The precious metal has challenged the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,738.00 and a break above the same could turn the short-term trend into a bullish trajectory.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that the gold prices are not bearish now.

Gold hourly chart